Why we have to discuss the Cavaliers trading Jarrett Allen

The Cleveland Cavaliers do not want to trade Jarrett Allen.

The Cavaliers would love for this grand experiment of two bigs and two smalls to work. And it has, remarkably well, throughout this regular season. Cleveland is 58-14 with a +10.4 point differential and a five-game lead on the defending champion Boston Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

If the organization doesn't want to trade Allen, fans don't seem to want to either. Earlier this month we wrote about a few potential trade scenarios the Cavaliers may face this summer, including a Jarrett Allen trade. Here's what was waiting from one fan in response:

Presumably "Tampa Joey Dev" didn't actually read the article -- he has stopped reading KJG, after all -- or he would have seen that we didn't advocate for an Allen trade nor discuss anything negative about Allen. That's beside the point. The question is whether an Allen trade is completely off the table for the Cavs. If it is, then it would certainly be a waste of time for us to consider it here at King James Gospel.

But the answer is in fact the opposite: recent NBA history screams that the Cavaliers could absolutely trade Jarrett Allen.

A Jarrett Allen trade is a real possibility

If the Cavaliers win the championship this season, especially if they do so by leaning into their starting lineup, then it's extremely unlikely that they move on from Jarrett Allen. Teams that experience championship success tend to keep their cores together. There would be no pressure on Cleveland to make a significant trade after making it to the mountaintop.

Yet the Cavaliers are no guarantee to win it all, nor are they even the favorites. Per ESPN BET, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorites at +175 to hoist the trophy, and second are the Boston Celtics at +190. The Cavaliers are a clear third at +500. That's certainly a position from which they could win it all, but it's definitely not a guarantee or even the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome, according to the betting markets, is that the Cavaliers lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Celtics.

Another team went from an uncertain start to the season to the top of their conference just last season, and made it all the way to the Conference Finals. That team was the Minnesota Timberwolves. They didn't have the same level of regular season dominance as Cleveland, but they did win 56 games and post the second-best net rating in the Western Conference. They took down the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the second round and then lost to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the West Finals.

Did Minnesota bask in their team's success and keep together the core at all costs? They did not. Instead, they looked at a good-not-great fit between their two bigs, peeked ahead at how expensive their team was in line to be, and made a bold trade before this season to flip Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a first-round pick.

The flip side of that deal is also instructive. The New York Knicks had a great season, made the second round and likely would have advanced if their team had not been devastated by injuries. They traded non-essential players and a bundle of draft picks for Mikal Bridges. Their team looked set.

Then they made the deal for Towns, sending faithful Knicks big Julius Randle and a "Nova Knick" in DiVincenzo to the Timberwolves. They were not driven by loyalty or emotions but decided their team would have a higher ceiling with Towns than Randle.

If the Cavaliers fall short in the playoffs, as they most likely will (they have a legitimately good chance to win it all, but it's well under a 50 percent chance) then they will take a hard look in the mirror. Does this roster give them the best chance to win? Would a different mix of players and skillsets be better?

Perhaps that leads to trading Darius Garland. Perhaps they package picks with Max Strus to make a move. But it is absolutely possible that Allen, the non-shooting big man who has done everything asked of him but is not the smoothest fit with Evan Mobley, is the one who is moved.

The Cavaliers have played 841 minutes this season with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the court together (per databallr), and they are a dominant +13.1 per 100 possessions in those minutes. They have also played 879 minutes with just Mobley on the court without Allen, and the Cavs are a similar +12.7 in those minutes.

Teams tend to go smaller, not bigger, in the playoffs and during crunch time. Kenny Atkinson has shown that same tendency throughout this season. Put all the pieces together, and it is incredibly reasonable to conclude that the Cavaliers could consider a change to make Mobley the full-time center and to acquire a wing or forward who can space the court and defend in Allen's place.

To be clear: this is not a statement that the Cavaliers should trade Jarrett Allen. This is not a declaration that the Cavaliers cannot win a title with Allen and Mobley together. This is not a prediction that Cleveland will trade Jarrett Allen.

It's simply an acknowledgment that the modern NBA, when superstars and All-NBA players can be shipped out suddenly, and where the conflicting pressures of winning and not getting too expensive are going to squeeze teams like never before, it's a possibility. And if it's a possibilty, then part of our analysis as a website covering the Cleveland Cavaliers is to discuss how it could happen.

That's why we will continue writing about Jarrett Allen trades, as well as avenues to replace Ty Jerome, what kind of trade returns the Cavs could get for Isaac Okoro, and who they should be watching for in the NBA Draft. It's our job, so we will continue doing it.

And hopefully, the Cavaliers will win the title this season, and Jarrett Allen will hoist the trophy to the rafters with that infectious grin on his face, and he can be a Cavalier for life.