15-0.
That's a record that only one team in NBA history has ever eclipsed to start a season, the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors. This year's Cleveland Cavaliers went on an historic run to start the year, and as the teams around them accrued losses, it looked like the Cavs were the cream of the crop in the NBA.
Two back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Hawks have brought them back to earth, and the Cavaliers are now 2-3 in their last five game. What's more, their insurmountable lead in the standings is essentially gone; they are tied in the loss column with the Boston Celtics and the two teams will play one another on Sunday for first place in the Eastern Conference.
If you peer a little more closely, the Cavaliers are already knocked off of their perch as the league's best team. Their net rating of +9.8 is strong -- title contender strong -- but is just third in the league behind the Boston Celtics (+10.7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (+10.6). The Simple Rating System, SRS, is even more stark: Cleveland is just fourth at +7.26, behind the Thunder, Celtics and Houston Rockets.
SRS is a metric that seeks to identify true team success by balancing net rating with strength of schedule. And therein lies the hidden Kryptonite for the Cavaliers' supposed dominant start: they have played the easiest schedule of any team in the NBA.
The Cavaliers have played a cupcake schedule
Strength of schedule compares how strong one team's opponents have been compared to everyone else in the league. For the Cavaliers, their schedule has been 2.5 standard deviations worse than the average team, the lowest mark in the league. In essence, their schedule thus far has been significantly easier than any other team.
There are a few factors that play into that rating that shouldn't be counted too harshly against the Cavaliers. The first is that they are a good team and cannot play themselves; the very worst teams in the league tend to float up the SOS rankings for that reason, and the very best float down. If you play the best team in the league four times, your schedule strength is getting a boost that the best team cannot attain.
The other factor is that the Cavaliers play in the weaker Eastern Conference. That does matter, and we will take a closer look at that in just a moment, but they will also be playing the rest of the season in the East and competing in the East playoffs; while it's a notable factor, it's also not going to change.
Yet the warning signs are there when you look at the schedule the Cavaliers have faced thus far that their start may have been at least part mirage. They have eight wins against Eastern Conference teams likely to end up in the lottery; if you think that the 76ers are already doomed, make that nine. Another two wins came against the Milwaukee Bucks early in the season, when they were sputtering, and they also faced the Orlando Magic right after Paolo Banchero went down and before Franz Wagner leveled up. Timing is everything.
Add in that the Cavaliers have played just four games against the Western Conference thus far -- only four! The West is a significantly better conference, with 10 winning teams to the East's six, and is dominating the season series between the two conferences. The Cavs have only had to face the tougher conference four times - and two of those games were against the injury-devastated New Orleans Pelicans!
The Cavaliers have a few impressive wins under their belt, including an evisceration of the Los Angeles Lakers and a dominant win over the Golden State Warriors. Back East, they beat the New York Knicks and nearly took down the Boston Celtics in Boston, losing by just three. They certainly aren't a bad team.
Thus far, however, they have feasted on an exceptionally easy schedule. Things will get more difficult, starting with Sunday's game against the Celtics. Yet at the same time, their schedule the rest of the way ranks just 20th in the league; playing in the East certainly has its advantages.
What should we take away? Even adjusting for schedule strength, the Cavaliers rate out as a Top 5 team in the league. They are still really good. They just might not be as good as their record states, and as they have games against the Celtics and Nuggets in the next week their true mettle will be tested.
The other takeaway? Take every record in the Western Conference with a grain of salt, because these teams have to play one another. The Cavaliers are living a charmed life by residing in the Eastern Conference, and that will result in more regular season wins and perhaps a red carpet to the Conference Finals in the playoffs.
For now, however, it means a soft schedule that may not tell the true story of how good this team really is.