There is one key factor that explains every Cleveland Cavaliers loss

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-3 in their last five games.

That's a dispiriting stat that seems to shines a light on how teams are starting to figure the Cavaliers out. It can be natural to think that the NBA has solved whatever Cleveland was doing to start the season, and that moving forward they will be a mediocre team.

That is almost certainly not the case; teams have up-and-down stretches inside of every season, and even great teams have weeks where they stumble. Just because those are the most recent results doesn't mean they should be weighted that much more than the 15-0 start.

The Cavaliers are still off to an historically good start, the best in franchise history and one of the best in modern NBA annals. In fact, only one other franchise has had a better start than the Cavaliers in the last decade; unfortunately for Cleveland, it's their cross-country rivals:

There is a common thread that explains the losses, a simple stat that runs as a through-line through all three defeats. It's one that makes a lot of sense in the modern NBA. When the Cavaliers have lost this season, it's because their shooting goes cold.

The Cavaliers lose when they miss shots

That may seem like something of an obvious statement, that when a team misses more shots they are more likely to lose. Yet there are many stats that could explain a loss, from points in the paint, turnovers, fouls, and so forth. For Cleveland this year, that deciding factor has been the 3-point shot.

They are currently shooting 40.2 percent as a team from 3-point range this season in all games, a number that leads the NBA. Players like Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill and Ty Jerome are hitting at an elite level and elevating the team's outside shooting as a result. This is a dangerous team from beyond the arc.

When you separate the Cavs' shooting splits according to the outcome of the game, however, you find an interesting result. In games that the Cavaliers ultimately win, they are shooting 41.8 percent from deep. In their three losses, however, that number plummets to 31.3 percent. That would be last in the league for the entire season, and what's more, it ranks just 24th in the league among all teams in games that they lose; in other words, when the Cavaliers don't have it from deep, they really don't have it.

Donovan Mitchell is shooting just 25.7 percent from deep in losses. Darius Garland, despite a strong showing in their latest loss, is at 33.3 percent, as is Ty Jerome. Isaac Okoro is shooting only 28.6 percent, and supposed sharpshooter Georges Niang is hitting only 21.4 percent from deep in losses. Of the regular rotation players, only Caris LeVert is shooting well in losses.

Is it a trend likely to continue? Perhaps, against certain opponents. The Boston Celtics have the league's best perimeter defense, and the Atlanta Hawks have a solid group of defenders spearheaded by Dyson Daniels. Many other teams couldn't replicate the same defensive approach and intensity.

Overall, however, 3-point shooting tends to be less affected by defense than other stats; it's likely more a factor of the Cavaliers just missing shots. We can follow this trend as the season goes on and see whether it continues to be a factor for losses. For now, it's been the clear explanation for when Cleveland loses or when they win.

Shooting really does mean everything in the modern NBA.