A massive summer Kevin Durant trade sweepstakes landed the two-time NBA champion on the Houston Rockets, a promising young contender who could challenge the Cleveland Cavalier's dreams of an NBA Finals victory.
Durant, combined with Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet quickly created a favorite contender in the Western Conference. Houston suddenly won the offseason, constructing a team with star power and two-way talent across every position. Despite Durant's age at 36 years old and recent injury concerns, his new teammates would complement his talents and give him the opportunity to manage his age and health without too much stress.
The Finals tides in the NBA dramatically shifted upon Durant's exit from the Phoenix Suns, but almost as quickly as they went in favor of Houston, those same tides are now swiftly moving away. Houston's premiere floor general and offensive captain, 2019 NBA champion Fred VanVleet, suffered an ACL tear and could miss the entirety of the 2025-26 season, per Shams Charania.
Last season, the veteran Rockets guard averaged 14.1 points and a team-high 5.6 assists on quality efficiency. VanVleet himself is not the leading star of the franchise, but his winning experience and role as the primary playmaker make his absence detrimental to the likelihood of Houston's playoff success.
The Cavaliers are indirect beneficiaries of VanVleet's injury
No franchise celebrates a rival's injury, especially when that player is as respected as FVV. While the Cavaliers will not promote his bad fortune, they are undoubtedly in a better standing among Finals contenders in the wake of the news.
Cleveland is facing two frustrating injuries of their own with Darius Garland and Max Strus set to miss significant time to start the season; however, both players are going to make a return with plenty of time ahead of the postseason. If the Cavs can rely on their increased depth and enter the playoffs healthy, the vast array of injuries in the Eastern Conference could give them a clear path to the Finals.
In a Finals showdown, the biggest threat to the Cavs are the reigning champions Oklahoma City Thunder and a healthy Rockets squad. With VanVleet out of the picture, the potential downfall in the final round of the year becomes a lot easier.
With Eastern Conference rivals, the lingering injuries over the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers give the Cavs an easier route to the Finals. Not facing some of the best rival talent across the conference leaves few teams really capable of challenging a healthy team led by Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. In a final East versus West battle, though, facing the likes of KD with a fully-fledged roster around him could decimate all the intraconference progress the Cavs had made the first three rounds.
Behind VanVleet, the Rockets have sophomore guard Reed Shepphard to fill his shoes, but young talent struggles in his first season. Averaging just 4.4 points and 1.1 assists with below average shooting percentages, it is hard to imagine he can lead an offensive system built to win the Finals.
In the short term, Cleveland's chances to win the Finals increase without VanVleet available in Houston. Still, the Cavaliers have proven themselves to be just as unfortunate as their rivals.
Cleveland is built to win - if they are healthy
The same injury fate that is falling on the Rockets is a constant threat for the Cavaliers. In each of the last three postseason runs, the Cavs have faced troubling injury woes that led to early exits. While VanVleet's absence opens the pathway to a Finals win, it is also an increasingly important warning sign for the Cavaliers.
Garland is one of the best point guards in the NBA right now and one of the greatest Cavaliers of all time. When he reaches full health again this season, Cleveland cannot take for granted how necessary he will be to playoff success.
The Cavs may quickly begin looking at the option of resting Garland on back-to-backs when he returns, a similar strategy potentially in play for Lonzo Ball. With so much misfortune recently, it seems Cleveland is dialed into reserving players for the playoffs, even if it costs seeding in the regular season.
Fred VanVleet keeps Houston's offense moving. He serves the same purpose of Garland, but Darius is even more crucial as a scorer for the Cavaliers than his Houston counterpart. While the Rockets assess their options this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers must make it paramount that the core and supporting cast are kept healthy and well-managed throughout the grueling 82-game season.