If the Cleveland Cavaliers face another short stint in the NBA playoffs, they could enter an offseason full of potential change and rumors.
Last year, the Cavs lost in five games to the eventual champions in the Boston Celtics. Cleveland entered the postseason injured and fairly inexperienced. After winning game seven against the Orlando Magic to advance, they were met with the best team the Eastern Conference had to offer. Needless to say, the odds were not in the Cavs' favor.
With 64 wins in the regular season this year, though, the potential defeat to the Indiana Pacers could be a harsh indictment of the team's current state of affairs - one that could have many onlookers calling for major changes. Last offseason, the Cavaliers chose to stick to the core group and supporting cast, only changing coaching staff and adding rookie Jaylon Tyson. The changes resulted in three All-Stars, Evan Mobley's Defensive Player of the Year victory and Kenny Atkinson earning Coach of the Year in his first season.
The playoffs have been an entirely different beast. Cleveland has suffered another plague of injuries to key players, and the once-dynamic sixth man Ty Jerome has gone completely silent. The Sixth Man of the Year finalist has not eclipsed 10 points in the last three games, shooting one-of-nine from deep in those games. As much as the Cavaliers have improved this year, they are clearly still a step or two away from the Finals glory they hope to achieve.
Giannis Antetokounmpo could be on the trade market
Finding another established, top-tier NBA superstar to play alongside Donovan Mitchell and Mobley could be an enticing path for the Cavaliers, especially with the level of talent dispersed across the Association now. After a third consecutive loss in round one, the Milwaukee Bucks may be forced to enter a hard reset, moving on from the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Giannis, a two-time MVP and former DPOY, entirely changed the future of the Bucks when he was drafted 15th overall in 2014. He brought the second championship to the city in franchise history and has been one of the league's greatest two-way threats in generations. As the teams continues to faulter and fall apart around him, his tenure in Wisconsin could be coming to an end. Thus, the speculation about perfect landing spots for Giannis has begun.
Naturally, big markets have already taken hold as exciting rumors. The Los Angeles Lakers could manipulate the trade market again just months after landing Luka Doncic in a shocking blockbuster. Unlike the shadow deal that sent Luka to Hollywood, the trade market for Giannis would likely be publicized and historically competitive. The chance for the Lakers, or the Cavaliers, to match what the Bucks could see in return is slim to none.
On paper, adding Giannis with Mitchell and another defensive stalwart forward like Mobley seems almost perfect. In the frontcourt, pairing Mobley and Antetokounmpo could come with some issues. Both players are naturally suited for the power forward position, but Mobley has gradually expanded to become comfortable as a center.
Could the Cavaliers find a way to land Giannis, though? In his latest piece with ESPN, Bobby Marks broke down exactly what teams can (and cannot) offer for the Greek superstar.
The CBA killed the Cavaliers' chances already... technically
As Marks notes, Cleveland is expected to be roughly $12.9 million over the second apron threshold at the start of the offseason. With expensive maximum extensions handed out to the core four, some are starting to kick in and inflate the Cavs' cap sheet. Their financial position restricts the Cavaliers from aggregating contracts, take back more money than they send out or use more than 100% of a traded player exception.
The league's newest Collective Bargaining Agreement was built specifically to prevent trades like this. After the Golden State Warriors built an unstoppable superteam in 2017 by signing Kevin Durant, the NBA wanted to prevent the possibility of buying a championship and killing any competitive nature for years.
Outside of Mitchell, Cleveland's core four all joined before they were seen as max-level players. Mobley and Darius Garland were drafted to the Cavs, and Jarrett Allen joined as an afterthought of a blockbuster James Harden trade that saw him join Durant and Kyrie Irving - a move that ironically helped build Cleveland into an NBA Finals contender so quickly after entering a rebuild.
Where there's a will, there's a way
If the Cavaliers were desperate to acquire Giannis, there is a path. It is not an easy or good path, but it is there. To add Antetokounmpo, the Cavs would have to shed immense salary by trading away some combination of Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade and Jaylon Tyson for next to nothing in return. From there, with a small margin below the second apron, the Cavaliers could package Garland and Allen for Giannis and fill out the rest of the roster with minimum contracts, as the deal would trigger a hard cap at the second apron.
This path would mean Cleveland guts any real bench rotation. Both Jerome and Sam Merrill would not re-sign in free agency. The Cavaliers would drastically reduce their depth and lean into a top-heavy, star-studded rotation with little room to maneuver in the future. For a team so hellbent on depth to win and keep stars rested, this route could be too costly for the Cavs to accept it.
In theory, the least painful route to Giannis would allow the Cavs to keep Strus and one of Wade or Tyson. The Cavaliers could trade Okoro to one of the few teams with cap space, receiving just draft compensation in return. Then, after trading Wade or Tyson, Cleveland theoretically could trade for the MVP finalist and build a modern superteam with a starting lineup of Mitchell, Strus, De'Andre Hunter, Giannis and Mobley.
Is it realistic? No. Will it happen? Pigs might fly someday. Who knows. The NBA is unpredictable, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have an All-NBA guard and a perennial DPOY rising star. If there's an opportunity to assemble what could be the greatest team in this chapter of the NBA history books, maybe it'd be worth it. But, the Cavs would have to hope the Bucks are looking for young talent in return instead of a stockpile of first rounders.