The Cleveland Cavaliers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. But boy, did they take the hard road getting there.
Two consecutive seven-game series against Toronto and Detroit. Fourteen games just to reach the conference finals, only to get swept by the New York Knicks. And now we're supposed to believe Cleveland can make another deep playoff run without making its regular-season positioning a priority?
I'd argue there's a number the Cavaliers should be chasing: 55 wins.
Why 55 wins should be Cleveland's target
Cleveland finished 52-30 last season, earning the East's fourth seed. That's respectable, but it also meant navigating a difficult postseason bracket.
The Cavaliers don't need a dramatic improvement to change that equation. Three additional victories would put them at 55-27, a realistic goal considering they went 21-9 over their final 30 games. And remember, James Harden didn't even spend an entire season in Cleveland.
Harden averaged approximately 20.5 points and eight assists during his abbreviated stint. Imagine what a full training camp and regular season alongside Donovan Mitchell could accomplish.
Mitchell remains one of the NBA's most prolific scorers. Harden is still an exceptional facilitator. And Jarrett Allen gives Cleveland a dependable pick-and-roll partner who can capitalize on Harden's passing. Then there's Peyton Watson, whose defensive versatility could help address one of Cleveland's biggest weaknesses.
The Cavaliers finished last season with the league's sixth-ranked offense but only the 15th-ranked defense. That's a significant difference for a team expecting to compete for a championship.
A healthier, more cohesive roster could push Cleveland toward 58 wins. But 55 feels like the sweet spot.
The Eastern Conference won't make this easy
The problem is, everybody else wants home-court advantage, too.
The Knicks aren't going anywhere. They're defending NBA champions, and Cleveland knows firsthand how difficult they are to beat when the postseason arrives.
Philadelphia is another concern. LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey give the 76ers an extraordinary collection of talent. Health and chemistry could determine whether that group dominates or disappoints.
And don't forget about Detroit.
The Pistons won 60 games last season, finishing first in the East. Boston won 56 and remains a legitimate threat with Jayson Tatum. Suddenly, 55 wins doesn't sound quite as impressive.
In one scenario, Cleveland finishes second and enjoys home-court advantage through the first two rounds, provided the higher seeds advance. In another, those same 55 victories might only secure third or fourth place.
That's how competitive the East has become.
Cleveland needs a better path, not an otherworldly record
My prediction is 55-27 and the No. 2 seed. It's ambitious without being unrealistic.
A best-case 58-24 finish could put Cleveland in contention for first place. A disappointing 47-35 season could leave the Cavaliers fighting for a fifth through seventh seed. But the difference between second and fourth could be enormous.
Another fourth-place finish might mean an exhausting opening series followed by an even tougher second-round opponent. Cleveland already experienced how quickly that kind of postseason can unravel.
Of course, a higher seed doesn't guarantee anything.
After all, the Cavaliers' playoff collapse exposed problems bigger than James Harden. Better seeding won't magically fix the defensive inconsistencies, questionable bench production, or offensive struggles that contributed to their elimination.
Cleveland doesn't need 60 wins to prove it's a championship contender. It needs enough victories to earn a favorable bracket and enough improvement on both ends of the floor to take advantage of it.
55 wins might be exactly what the Cavaliers need.
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