The Cleveland Cavaliers-Atlanta Hawks first-round playoff series promises to be evenly matched, far more so than Cavs fans would like. Bill Simmons was but one analyst who very recently talked about how a Cavs-Hawks series would almost certainly go to six or seven games (Simmons' guest, Tim Legler, agreed).
The reason that Atlanta can give the Cavs so much trouble? Their guard play. The Hawks have the perfect group of guards to contain the Donovan Mitchell-James Harden dynamic duo. Dyson Daniels and Nickel Alexander-Walker are both elite defenders who will do as much as anyone else could to limit Mitchell and Harden.
The Hawks also have a strong corps of big, athletic wings to throw at either Cavs guard to mix things up, or naturally during live switches. On the other end of the floor, Atlanta's CJ McCollum is sure to force either Mitchell or Harden to exert real energy defending him, whomever it happens to be on a given possession.
Evan Mobley is the difference-maker in a Cavs-Hawks matchup
But while the Cavs might see their guard play more or less neutralized by the rugged perimeter defense of the Hawks, Cleveland still has the overall upper hand due to their size, particularly in the form of Evan Mobley.
Atlanta's big men, headlined by Onyeka Okongwu, simply aren't large enough to challenge Mobley physically, so long as Evan is playing hard-nosed basketball, rebounding with full effort, and looking to be aggressive on offense. On the flip side of things, if Mobley does another disappearing act in the playoffs, this series could very well be won by the Hawks.
The good news for the Cavs is that Mobley has been playing All-Star level basketall since Jarrett Allen went down with an injury in mid-March. Cleveland thinks that Mobley might be turning the corner at the perfect time.
If Mobley can consistently unleash his scoring potential, the Cavs become scary enough to not only do away with Atlanta, but advance through the East playoffs and into the NBA Finals. If he fails to deliver and decides to play passively on offense, Cleveland could fall to Atlanta in six games. It's crazy to think how substantially Cleveland's fate swings in either direction based on Mobley, but he's simply that important to their ceiling.
Evan Mobley has something to prove during this postseason
Mobley's upcoming playoff performance has large-scale consequences for his own career and the future of the Cavs franchise. Don't think that Cleveland's front office is fully committed to Mobley remaining the organization's centerpiece. He's currently set up to be the Cavs' longest-tenured and highest-paid player, with a deal that runs through 2029-30. But another playoff flop would give Koby Altman decent reason to get on the phone this summer and look for a trade.
Conversely, if Mobley comes up huge for Cleveland, starting with a dominant performance against the Hawks, he'll reaffirm his status as one of the Cavs' franchise cornerstones moving into the rest of the decade. Yes, this is a pivotal moment in Mobley's career.