The Cleveland Cavaliers entered the season as one of the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference. However, a shaky start to the season cost them that distinction, as they haven't been able to replicate last year's success as the top-seeded squad.
As such, Kenny Atkinson's team has floated around the fourth seed for most of the campaign. Now, with just eight games left in the regular season, only a miracle or a disaster would cost them that spot.
That's why they must hope the Atlanta Hawks stay put at sixth seed or below. They've played some great basketball lately, and they could be a sneaky threat if they manage to get past the Toronto Raptors for fifth.
The Atlanta Hawks could be a legitimate threat in the first round
The Hawks are another prime example of addition by subtraction. They've gotten much better without Trae Young this season, even riding an 11-game winning streak at one point, the longest since the 2014-15 season.
That franchise has been the definition of average for years now, constantly flirting with .500 basketball and not being much of a postseason threat. With the way Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are playing, that might change this year. Also, they've split the season series with the Cavs, with the Hawks winning their most recent meeting.
The Cavs have always had issues guarding long and athletic wings. Quin Snyder's team has the aforementioned Johnson and Daniels, plus Jonathan Kuminga. They also have a surging Nickeil Alexander-Walker, an underrated on-ball defender and a switchable guy who can be a bit of a matchup nightmare because of his supporting cast.
Moreover, Onyeka Okongwu can be physical down low and has expanded his range as a 3-point shooter, and both of those things spell trouble for Jarrett Allen, who has a history of disappearing in the playoffs.
Of course, the Cavs should like their chances against anybody, especially since adding an elite pick-and-roll player like James Harden and bolstering the perimeter defense with Keon Ellis. Maybe even Dennis Schroder can come out of his funk to face the team that drafted him.
That said, you never want to face teams on the rise. The Hawks are peaking at the right time, and they're just half a game behind the Raptors.
Per Basketball Reference, they have the 10th-best defensive rating (114.1) and are just outside the top 10 in offensive rating (115.4, 14th). They rank first in field goals and assists, and having so many playmakers, willing passers, and shot-makers can help a team get hot in a seven-game series.