Collin Sexton’s arrow is pointing up for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Looking at next season, it’s apparent to me that Collin Sexton should be the primary option offensively for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kevin Love shifting more toward a second option role from the jump next season would be a smart move, anyhow, and would preserve him.
Make no mistake, Love’s key role is as being the Cavs’ best catch-and-shoot player still, and his floor spacing presence should help the likes of Sexton, hopefully Darius Garland more so next season, Kevin Porter Jr. and others. Love is fresh off hitting 37.4 percent of a career-high 7.0 three-point attempts per game in 2019-20, too.
But again, after Sexton led the Cavaliers this now-past season in scoring with 20.8 points per game on an improved 56.0 percent true shooting clip as compared to his rookie when his true shooting clip was 52.0 percent, Sexton is option A for Cleveland. That’s at least in a scoring sense, from my perspective.
In his last 32 games of 2019-20 leading into the novel coronavirus-induced hiatus and ultimately the end of Cleveland’s season, Sexton had 23.5 points per outing on 49.3 percent shooting. In that span, he hit 44.4 percent of his triple attempts, too, and had 3.5 assists and 1.0 steals per contest.
Sexton was mostly at the 2 in his second season, and did a really good job of leaning into that role, and while you would ideally like him to continue to show improvement as a passer/drive-and-kick player and defender, Sexton’s off-ball growth as a cutter/spot-up player was encouraging.
Sexton did seem to be more comfortable in the off-ball regard as the season progressed, and him hitting 42.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts, per NBA.com’s shot tracking data, was a key positive.
He continued to prove he’s a highly capable spot-up threat from deep, and was showing little to no hesitation in just letting catch-and-shoot triple looks fly. That was much different than was the case often pre-All-Star break in his rookie season, and I would expect Sexton to be even better on spot-ups in his third season.
Although, Sexton has shown that if the opportunities present themselves, he can knock down pull-up triple attempts, too.
Sexton should be very sharp on pull-up three-pointers for the Cleveland Cavaliers next season.
While overall, I’d feasibly expect Sexton’s three-point volume to be in the 4.5 attempt per outing range, I’d imagine we’ll see Sexton be more efficient even on pull-up three-point tries.
We could perhaps see Sexton utilize more step backs in his third season in the mid-range area, which I believe could be sensible, sure. But I could maybe see some more from downtown, actually, to further take advantage of the presence of his quickness/speed.
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Albeit in regards to pull-ups, Sexton hit 35.0 percent of his pull-up three-point attempts in year 2, which was a solid clip, and he hit 37.4 percent of those looks in year 1.
Sexton is highly capable of hitting those looks, and in situations when he gets a big switched out onto him in the pick-and-roll game, those looks from deep going into it should continue to be there.
Of course, we know Sexton will have his share of mid-range attempts via pull-ups, and in-rhythm, I’m fine with those attempts.
Feasibly even in his primary matchups, though, while I’d still expect Sexton to also be an active driver, Sexton should be very sharp on pull-up three-pointers next season.
Whether or not the start of next season for the Cleveland Cavaliers is eventually delayed even until March, which could reportedly be the case to maybe allow fan attendance, in regards to hopeful strides being made relating to COVID-19, Sexton will be ready.
It’s been well-documented that Sexton has a truly rare commitment level to the game, and with the strides he’s already made as a spot-up threat from three-point range and with him showcasing the ability to change speeds last season, I believe he’ll be very sharp on pull-up triples next season.
I don’t see it being outside the realm of possibility that Sexton, perhaps on a frequentcy of maybe 12.0 percent or so, could hit in the ballpark of 39.0 percent of his pull-up triple attempts in his third year.
I’d imagine that Sexton, who is a tireless worker, has been working on his off-the-bounce triples a whole heck of a ton during this time via individual work, and he also hit a scorching 48.6 percent of his pull-up triple attempts in his last 15 games of 2019-20, too. That was on a 13.3 percent frequency and again, per NBA.com’s shot tracking data.
In any case, while I’d think it could be meaningful for the Wine and Gold to get Sexton some more off-ball/off screen attempts next season, he’ll still be their most dangerous off-the-bounce scorer. I expect the 2018 eighth overall pick by the Cavs in Sexton, maybe on that aforementioned frequency, to be very sharp on his pull-up triples next season, to reiterate.
Needless to say, the Young Bull is going to be a handful for opposing defenses in year 3, and I’d imagine he could very well have roughly 22.0-23.0 points per game as likely Cleveland’s most polished all-around scorer.