Cavs: Revisiting statistics predictions for Darius Garland, Collin Sexton

Looking back at my stats predictions for Garland

My predictions: 14.1 PPG on 53.7 percent true shooting, 3.6 APG, 28.8 MPG and 72 games active

Garland’s 2019-20 stats thus far: 12.3 PPG on 49.8 percent true shooting, 3.9 APG, 30.9 MPG and 59 games active

So when looking back at my statistics predictions for Garland for his rookie season, it was clear that I was pretty off when it comes to one key area.

Where I was off the mark: Shooting/scoring

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I was well-aware that Garland had a minuscule sample size of collegiate games coming into the NBA, appearing in just five (and really four) at Vanderbilt, due to a meniscus tear.

His shooting range and handling acumen, even though he hasn’t seemed to be truly himself when it comes to being able to get separation yet coming off his injury last season, has still flashed a number of times.

While some of it has been due to Cleveland having pieces such as Kevin Love, of course Sexton, along with Cedi Osman, Nance, and others, such as more recently, Andre Drummond, Garland has only had 12.3 points per outing, according to Basketball Reference.

To me, that’s been underwhelming, and while his playmaking feel has been a bright spot from my view, you’d like to see Garland be more aggressive as a scorer going forward.

Hopefully, Garland, who had missed the Cavs’ last five games leading into the league’s suspension on March 11 due to a left groin strain, can eventually be able to get stronger to help his finishing in the paint, and it’s clear that ideally, he’ll be able to gain more explosive quickness in coming years.

On the plus side, Garland has already shown some ability to change speeds, which was not something Sexton showed much of in his rookie season.

Though the defensive end is where Garland has a long way to go likely due to his physical limitations at only 6-foot-1 and pretty slender currently, if the Cavs can get Garland to be more aggressive as a shooter/scorer next season, it would pay huge dividends for his production and should help him in getting through off-ball screens more effectively on D.

He is capable, too, and while his three-point shooting clip of 35.5 percent is fairly average, him already hitting 105 three-pointers this year, joining Sexton as becoming only the second Cavs rookie to hit 100 three-pointers and did so in just 59 games, is encouraging to me. I would’ve expected Garland to be a better overall scorer inside the arc and perhaps show more willingness outside the arc, though.

So where was I right in regards to Garland, then?

Where I’ve hit: Playmaking

While Garland leading the Cavaliers in assists per game with only 3.9 this season is not a glowing endorsement for Cleveland’s ball movement, this is about on-par with what I would’ve expected from Garland on a team where playmaking is sort of a by-committee approach.

Love has had 3.2 assists per game, and even while playing just 14.4 minutes per outing thus far this season, so has Matthew Dellavedova. Plus, Collin Sexton has had 3.0 assists per game, Cedi Osman has averaged 2.4, Porter has averaged 2.2 and so has Nance, and on a glass half-full note, it was nice to see Cleveland average 26.6 assists per outing post-All-Star, which was seventh in the NBA, as noted by NBA.com.

At any rate, while Garland does not need to cut down on forcing some passes into cutters/rollers, which have played into him having 2.6 giveaways per outing, his ability to hit lobs often, connect with trailers such as Love and Osman, and initiate plenty of production ball-swings, especially since the the turn of the year, has been a big positive.

In January, Garland had 5.3 helpers per contest and in February had 4.8, and in the games he played in post-All-Star with Bickerstaff at the helm, DG was playing at a nice pace and averaging a solid 4.2, according to NBA.com.

So while it’s not quite lived up to expectations this year, Garland is still a player I definitely see as a key contributor for the Wine and Gold in the near future, they just have to allow him to grow and also get stronger.

Okay let’s then move on to where I hit and missed in regards to Sexton’s 2019-20 stats predictions.