Cavs: Dante Exum may be odd man out among perimeter pieces next year

Next season, Dante Exum may be the odd man out when looking at the guard/wing rotation for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

At this juncture, the 2019-20 NBA season is suspended for the Cleveland Cavaliers and other teams, as you know, given the concerns regarding the novel coronavirus pandemic. The first NBA player to test positive for COVID-19 was Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert, and since Gobert did, the league suspended the current season.

In terms of other recent updates in relation to COVID-19’s impact on the NBA/its players, you can view those here and also here. It’s unclear at this time if the 2019-20 season will be played out, and the NBA remains on hiatus.

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Looking at the 2020-21 season, whenever that begins/is played, it appears, when looking at the guard/wing rotation for the Cavaliers, that Dante Exum may be odd the man out.

Exum was acquired by Cleveland back in late December in a trade with the Utah Jazz in exchange for bench bucket-getter Jordan Clarkson, and two future Utah second-round picks were included with Exum at the time.

Clearly, though, it’s been a really tough tenure thus far for Dante with the Cavs.

Since being traded to Cleveland, Exum has had an awful bout with the flu in early January that caused him to miss three games, and he’s also been inactive for Cleveland since February 24 after spraining his left ankle in a game against the Miami Heat.

The league has of course been suspended since March 11, but it was reported that Exum would be out for a considerable amount of time in what was seemingly a particularly tough ankle sprain.

Exum has also missed extensive time dating back to his tenure with the Jazz, too, and has had a rough go of it with the injury bug in regards to shoulder and knee issues, and he also missed the entire 2015-16 season due to a torn ACL. He only played 14 games in the 2017-18 season, too.

Anyway, while Exum is not a player that should be expected to score in bunches, and is a more defensive-minded player that’s going to blend in offensively but is a good cutter and does a solid job setting up others as a rotational combo guard, Exum hasn’t been able to stay healthy and he’s seemingly had issues getting in rhythm on a consistent basis.

Though he started off pretty well with the Cavs off the bench and was a nice finisher on the interior on decisive straight-line drives and in transition, Exum has averaged 5.6 points and 1.4 assists per game with Cleveland. His career averages for those categories are 5.7 points and 2.1 assists per outing, as noted by Basketball Reference, so it’s not as if that’s so underwhelming when thinking of the realistic expectations before.

However, when you account for the fact that Collin Sexton, Cleveland’s leading scorer this season with 20.8 points per game, along with Darius Garland, who has flashed deep range and encouraging playmaking ability, and Kevin Porter Jr. I’d imagine will all be playing big minutes, and that Cleveland could feasibly select a starting wing replacement for Cedi Osman, who I’d think still could play a fair amount next year himself, Exum looks like the odd man out in the guard/wing rotation next year.

Granted, Exum is not a piece that would playing the 3 under normal circumstances anyway, and he was really only filling in at that spot here and there with Alfonzo McKinnie previously sidelined due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. That being said, for Exum, if the Cavs go with a big in the 2020 NBA Draft such as USC’s Onyeka Okongwu or Dayton’s Obi Toppin, with their young guards, Exum’s best chance at playing meaningful minutes at times could be at the 3, which would even seem to be a stretch.

Plus, Porter, who has averaged a promising 10.0 points per game, per NBA.com, as a 19-year-old reserve contributor, given he has much more ability to create his own offense than Exum, and is a much more capable shot-maker that finishes at the rim through contact much better, too, is generally a more viable rotational 3 option than Exum.

I’ll admit that Porter is far more turnover-prone than Exum and Exum is a better off-ball defender at this point, but KPJ is on par with Exum on-ball defensively and Porter had a pretty impressive 14.7 assist rate thus far going into the NBA’s season suspension as a score-first player. Meanwhile, Exum’s assist rate has been 12.0 with Cleveland, and he puts nowhere close to the same amount of pressure on opposing defenses as Porter or Sexton.

Albeit Porter, who had missed the Cavs’ previous three games due to a concussion and previously missed a 10-game stretch due to a left knee sprain, is a player that needs to stay healthy, and so does Garland, who missed Cleveland’s last five games due to a left groin strain going into the NBA suspending its season.

I haven’t even included Dylan Windler, either, though.

Windler was going to be missing his entire rookie season due to complications involving a stress reaction in his left leg, and for precaution, even with the NBA potentially coming back this season, I’d still expect Windler to be sidelined until 2020-21.

Nonetheless, as a 3 option next year, or feasibly a 2 option, Windler is a player that I’d think could affect games much more consistently than Exum, as he shot 40.6 percent from three-point range in a four-year career at Belmont, per Sports Reference, and he showcased a terrific pull-up game.

Plus, I believe Windler could be a productive secondary playmaker, to an extent, if he’s mostly healthy, and again, with Larry Nance Jr. showing he can play the 3 at times for Cavs head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, we could see Windler at the 2 as a potent backcourt partner in some instances alongside Garland/Sexton/Porter. Those players are much more capable offensively than Exum and should be playing meaningful minutes throughout games for their growth, too.

Exum, a mostly non-floor spacer, shouldn’t be playing much over Osman, who has shot 38.3 percent from three-point land, either.

I also believe, given what he showed having to play a bigger minutes-share post-All-Star break with Garland hurt especially, that if it were a team-friendly deal, that Matthew Dellavedova, who is on an expiring contract, should be brought back by the Cavs next season. With Delly being a much more impact passer, I’d rather see him in than Exum if it came down to that at points alongside Porter or Sexton, realistically.

So when looking at next season, even with the Cavs seemingly still focused on playing young pieces, and Exum currently only 24 and turning 25 in July, he may very well be the odd man out in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ guard/small forward rotation. That’s even more so the case if Dante again has injury troubles.

I could also see Exum potentially being a throw-in type of piece as an expiring contract player next season, too, whenever the 2020-21 season ultimately is. Exum being due to make $9.6 million next season, while far from an awfully high salary by NBA standards, could make it somewhat tougher to deal him as a throw-in player though, but we’ll see.