If Cavs don’t win it all, LeBron will leave

LeBron James will leave the Cleveland Cavaliers if he doesn’t win a championship at the end of the season.

The truth of the matter is this. If the Cleveland Cavaliers don’t win a NBA championship at the end of the 2017-2018 postseason — or come fairly close to winning one — LeBron James will leave at the end of the season.

There’s no insider knowledge that drives this piece, merely speculation and observation.

Nonetheless, there are times throughout the season when it seems like it will be inevitable for James not to leave The Land for another home.

The chaos, dysfunction, lapses and finger-pointing that have become annual events for this Cavs team isn’t pretty and it isn’t fun.

The Cleveland Cavaliers went from a rifts between James and Kevin Love and then James and Dion Waiters in the 2014-2015 season to contract disputes throughout the 2015 offseason to firing former head coach David Blatt halfway through the 2015-2016 season.

After winning the NBA championship in the 2016 season, the first in franchise history and one that ended a 52-year drought of professional sports titles in Cleveland, the 2016-2017 season was marred by disappointing regular season play and poor coaching from Tyronn Lue, the man who replaced Blatt.

Once that a roller coaster season ended, the franchise deciding not to bring back a beloved, though not infallible, general manager in David Griffin. The 4-1 defeat at the hands of the Golden State Warriors left such a bitter taste in the front office’s mouth that they first tried to swap Love, an oft-mentioned player in the Cavs trade winds, for Paul George.

Once that didn’t work, and resident existential philosopher Kyrie Irving heard that his name was being mentioned in trade talks as well, the train went off the tracks. Irving requested a trade while blaming James for both the trade talks beginning and the trade talks being leaked.

Eventually, Irving, a player with the type of skill that screams “perennial All-Star”, was traded for a player who wasn’t going to play at all in the year 2017.

Now, the Cavs have personnel that doesn’t quite fit on the court and double-down on the issue with a Catch 22: leave Love at center so that the offense can thrive or start Tristan Thompson, who is now on the trade block, so that there’s at least a semblance of rim-protection on the interior.

Related Story: Why the Cavs should make a trade for Derrick Favors

While much was made about the Cleveland Cavaliers 13-game winning streak, the Cavs have only defeated four teams that currently have a record above .500: the Los Angeles Clippers, the Detroit Pistons, the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers.

As of today, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-4 against the Warriors, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves (three of the top four teams in the Western Conference). Against the Timberwolves, a the Cavs lost by 28 points.

They’re 2-2 against the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat (three of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference). Against the Raptors, the Cavs lost by 34 points.

Not pretty at all.

With 22 days left until the trade deadline, the Cleveland Cavaliers (who have the league’s 28th-worst defense when sorted by defensive rating), should be looking at any and every option to get fitting pieces around the players who have proven themselves so far this season.

Questions remains though.

Will Lue play sensible lineups throughout a game, matching players skillsets? Will they acknowledge that practice makes perfect and that their lack of practice probable has a lot to do with a lack of execution?

Will they trade Love to bring in a marquee player? The Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick in 2018? Isaiah Thomas?

Like Drake said, “ain’t no tellin'”.

The funny thing is, despite the fact that they’ve had the best player in the world for the past three and a half seasons, the Cavs franchise always seems like it’s in a free fall.

That’s not much impetus for a player to stay. Especially a player whose already delivered a championship to the city to stay.

If James was to leave and join a team like the Houston Rockets, there’s little doubt that a Big Three of James Harden, Chris Paul and James would be one to rival the Warriors’ (main) triumvirate of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. It would also be a city that doesn’t pressure James to stay with more sentimental reasons than basketball reasons.

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Texas, like Florida (where James spent four seasons with the Miami Heat), is also a tax-free state. That simply means there would be more money for James if he left and a person with his business aspirations certainly would make that a factor.

If James was to leave and join a young squad like the Los Angeles Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers, there aren’t just players with All-Star potential on the squad but it’s a team with at least one player (be it Lonzo Ball or Ben Simmons) that looks to James like a mentor.

After Irving’s departure, it seems like James has started to wear on veteran players.

Reading between the lines, Irving seems to have been miffed by James’ barking in the huddle. Players are complaining that James, their primary playmaker and the best point-forward in NBA history, the reason that a lot of them joined or still are on the Cavs, holds the ball too much.

Going to one of those young teams, with players that look at him like their “Michael Jordan”, would a breath of fresh air for the King.

The Lakers are situated in a city where James likes to frequent. The 76ers have to players who could be future Hall of Famers.

When thinking about how the weight can be lifted off of James’ shoulders, mind and heart if he departs, it’s hard to imagine him staying.

The drama-filled Cavs aren’t beating the top teams. They’re scrambling for answers yet devaluing James in the face of keeping a potential lottery pick that they’d have the next offseason if James left. His teammates are complaining about him. He doesn’t have a great relationship with the team’s owner.

There are truly more reasons for James to leave than to stay. However, if he wins a championship, he’ll likely feel inclined to return to try to repeat.

That could result in James choosing not to opt out of his contract but even that doesn’t guarantee he’d stay long-term.

Related Story: Cleveland Cavaliers midseason evaluation

*All stats gathered from www.basketball-reference.com