Look through the best 5-man lineups this season for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and you will see nearly every rotation player show up. When it comes to the team's two star guards, both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland show up roughly the same amount of times.
What you won't see? The two of them together.
That's because the Cavaliers are incredible with either Garland or Mitchell on the court, but they are merely good with both. Of the team's 10-best lineups (minimum 25 minutes together) only two feature the All-Stars together in the backcourt.
Let's look at it another way. The website Databallr has a "WOWY" tool - With or Without You. It allows you to see how the team performs when certain players are on or off the court.
When you compare Mitchell and Garland, the results are stark. When the two guards play together, in 965 minutes the Cavaliers are +9.6 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. That is mostly driven by their offense, unsurprising given how dynamic those two are at creating points for themselves and others.
Take one of the two off the court, however, and the team is even better. The Cavaliers have played roughly the same amount of minutes with one or the other off the court as they have with both together, so this is not a small sample size issue. When one of the guards comes off the court, the Cavaliers improve.
When Darius Garland plays without Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers are +11.1 points per 100 better than the other team. That is driven all by offense; they are an average defensive team and an elite offensive one. Flip things around, and when Mitchell is on the court and Garland is off, the Cavaliers are +11.9, a balanced team on both offense and defense.
In a much smaller amount of time, around 180 minutes, when both Mitchell and Garland are off the court the Cavaliers absolutely destroy teams to the tune of +18.6 points per 100 possessions. That's probably somewhat fluky given the small sample and the impact of garbage time minutes, but the Cavs certainly are not falling apart without their stars.
This is the simple statement: this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been better when only one of their guards is on the court. They have been at their worst when both are on the court.
Is Cavaliers' secret a strength or a weakness?
The most obvious reason why the Cavaliers are playing so well with only one or the other of Mitchell or Garland is that their third guard is having a truly incredible season. Ty Jerome has been electric from day one, and lineups where he steps onto the court and into a large role have been dominant.
When Ty Jerome plays alongside Donovan Mitchell without Darius Garland, the Cavaliers outscore opponents by 11.5 points per 100. Swap Mitchell for Garland, and the Cavaliers outscore opponents by 10.5. Jerome is essentially interchangeable with either of the All-Stars.
Take it a step further. When Ty Jerome plays without both Garland and Mitchell, in 166 minutes, the Cavaliers outscore opponents by a whopping 22.6 points per 100 possessions. Take Jerome off as well, and the Cavs plummet to -20.1.
So the secret is not that Garland and Mitchell can't play together; it's that Jerome is a better fit with either of them than they are with each other. In one way, that's a strength -- the Cavaliers have three guards having incredible seasons.
The weakness, however, comes when you look ahead to the playoffs. The season-long numbers suggest that the Cavaliers should play as many minutes as possible with only one of Garland or Mitchell on the court. Ty Jerome should ramp up his minutes, and in crunch time Kenny Atkinson should play Jerome over one of the stars.
Is there any chance he does that? It seems extremely unlikely. NBA coaches tend to lean on their stars more, not less, in the playoffs. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 31.4 minutes per game in the regular season; Darius Garland is at 30.6. Those numbers will almost certainly go up in the postseason. That likely means only 24-26 minutes for Jerome.
And in crunch time, would Atkinson truly sit one of his All-Star guards? He is willing to do so with Jarrett Allen, but teams have been sitting bigs for years. Sitting a player like Darius Garland? That's an incredible bold move. If he does that and it doesn't work he will get blasted by the media, by fans and potentially his own players.
Atkinson is almost certainly going to play his stars. You can absolutely make the argument that it's the right thing to do, that the statistics don't tell the full story. Yet it's undeniable that this season, with this mix of players, the Cavaliers are at their best when they split up their stars.
Will they do it? Or will it doom them in the playoffs? Only a couple of weeks remain until the answers to these questions are revealed.