The loss of Victor Wembanyama is a loss for everyone.
It was announced Thursday that the young phenom will miss the rest of the season after being diagnosed with "Deep Vein Thrombosis" in his right shoulder, a type of blood clot that shouldn't affect his career long-term but that requires him to avoid contact sports for 4-6 months.
It's a loss for fans of basketball, as Wembanyama is a rising star who will likely be the face of the league in a few years. In just his second season he was a clear Top-15 player, and arguably Top 10, the best defender in the league and a defense-breaking offensive player launching 3-pointers and dishing passes at 7'5".
It's also obviously a loss for the San Antonio Spurs, who were in the mix to make the Play-In Tournament and wanted to take a step forward. It's a loss for the league, which was lining up Spurs games on national television and marketing their rising star.
On the surface, however, it doesn't seem like it should have a significant impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's true that the Cavs have both of their matchups with San Antonio ahead of them, on March 27th and April 4th, which should be easier to win with Wembanyama out of the lineup. Yet the world-destroying Cavaliers would have already been significant favorites to win those games. The loss of Wembanyama doesn't increase their odds all that much. Perhaps an expected 70 percent chance of winning both games ascends to 80 percent.
Yet there is a massive way that the loss of Wembanyama for the Spurs is going to affect things for the Cavaliers, something that could have significant shockwaves for the future of this core and their ability to contend for titles for years to come.
It all has to do with Evan Mobley.
Wembanyama's diagnosis opens the door for Evan Mobley
Before the season began, Victor Wembanyama was the odds-on favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. From his very first game he only proved that standing correct, leading the league in blocks by a superhuman amount and scaring opposing teams witless around the rim. If he made it to the 65-game minimum he was going to run away with the award.
Wembanyama's season has now ended at 46 games, however, making him ineligible for major awards. That now means someone else has to win Defensive Player of the Year, and that puts Evan Mobley front and center.
Per Kevin Pelton of ESPN, as of Thursday afternoon Jaren Jackson Jr. was installed as the betting favorite at ESPN BET, but only slightly. More so, his defensive metrics are fine, but not elite, and the Memphis Grizzlies are seventh in defensive rating -- good, but not undeniably elite.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are essentially tied with Memphis in defensive rating after their evisceration of the New York Knicks on national television Friday night, which should only have a positive effect on Evan Mobley's chances of passing Jackson Jr. as the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. He was a close second after Wembanyama was removed from the running, and he will likely be challenging for the award all season along given Cleveland's dominance and Mobley's breakout season.
Winning an award like Defensive Player of the Year is obviously a fantastic affirmation for Mobley and something he should be pushing for on its own, but winning the award comes with an added benefit: Mobley's next contract is a "Rose Rule" rookie-scale maximum deal, which means if Mobley wins MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or makes an All-NBA team, the value of his deal will go up.
He is already set to make 25 percent of the salary cap next season, but it could start as high as 30 percent if he wins Defensive Player of the Year. Wembanyama's presence as the overwhelming favorite made that an impossibility as recently as a week ago, but suddenly it is back on the table. Additionally, Wemby's diagnosis pulls him from the All-NBA conversation, making it that much more likely Mobley could qualify for that honor as well.
Mobley's award will come at a cost
The Cavaliers project to be slightly over the second luxury tax apron next season with new extensions for Mobley and Donovan Mitchell kicking in. If Mobley makes $46 million instead of $38 million it will skyrocket the team's tax payment and essentially lock them into the second apron, restricting their ability to make trades and conduct business.
Moving forward Mobley's future earnings will also be five percent higher, increasing the team's salary and making it less likely they can sustain a contender. They will be forced into hard decisions about which players they can keep and which ones they can't, potentially starting with Ty Jerome this summer.
If Mobley wins the award he will deserve the increase in pay; he will have quite literally earned it. He negotiated it into his contract and went out and took the leap forward necessary to earn it. It's great news for him, and in one sense for the Cavaliers team that believed in him and empowered him.
It's also extremely likely that the organization has to be hoping he just misses out on the award. They can lean into the affront of Mobley being "snubbed" and have a more reasonable contract amount to manage moving forward.
Yet it's becoming more and more likely that Mobley is going to get hardware in response to his breakout season, and Victor Wembanyama missing out makes it even more likely he will make himself a lot more money -- and therefore, cost the Cavaliers that money as well.