How do you measure the strength of a contender?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a surprise entrant into the inner circle, but their gaudy record of 55-10 with a +11.3 net rating is historically good and undeniable. They are an elite team. Yet they don't have the postseason track record yet to back up their regular-season play. Are they overrated by their record? Are they a legitimate title favorite?
The regular season can only do so much to answer that question, but there are some indicators to check, including a team's record against the very best teams in the league.
The legendary Marc Stein publishes a weekly piece rounding up news and rumors around the NBA, and this week he highlighted a stunning statistic that should have fans of the Cavaliers feeling good heading into the postseason.
It is generally agreed that there is an inner circle of title contenders, and most would put three names into that group: the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder. In six games against those two teams, the Cavaliers are 3-3.
The next tier of teams are those with a realistic shot at making the NBA Finals. They have a top-tier superstar player (or two) and have a chance to make a run. Stein puts that group at four teams: the New York Knicks, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Denver Nuggets, and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Here's the stat: against those four teams, the Cavaliers are 9-0.
The Cavaliers are pummeling the NBA's second tier
In games against many of the league's best players and the 1B contenders to make a deep run in the playoffs, the Cavaliers are perfect. Undefeated. Relatively unfazed.
Their most recent win against the second tier came Sunday night, when the Cavaliers went into Milwaukee and won by 12 points with a balanced attack. The Bucks tried and succeeded to slow down the Cavaliers' star backcourt, but the team just morphed into a 10-headed monster that took them down anyway.
That's the not-so-secret to the Cavaliers' success: they can win in a number of ways. Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland can catch fire and put up 50 points. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can beat up opponents inside, as they did combining for 44 points, 22 rebounds and four blocks in Cleveland's Tuesday night win vs the Brooklyn Nets.
They also have a number of bench players ready to step up: Ty Jerome is nearly unstoppable this season, and the likes of Sam Merrill, De'Andre Hunter and Dean Wade are bombing away from 3-point range. The Cavs legitimately go 10-deep and don't give teams a chance to breathe.
If you are built to stop a singular star, the Cavaliers have four. If you are built to take away the 3-point line, the Cavaliers bludgeon you inside. If you are built to wall off the paint, the Cavaliers are the league's best shooting team. And oh-by-the-way, they also have two All-Defense big men as the foundation of their defense with the likes of Isaac Okoro, Max Strus, De'Andre Hunter and Dean Wade to lock down opposing players on the perimeter.
The very best teams in the league are good enough to pose the same matchup problems back to the Cavaliers. The second tier? They don't have it. They have a glaring weakness or two for Cleveland to blast open, or they only have so much defensive versatility or roster depth to keep up with the many options before Kenny Atkinson on a given night.
The Cavaliers haven't just gotten lucky in a handful of games; they are demolishing very good opponents. The ultimate test will be the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, but their odds of tripping up before that point are extremely low.
This team has proven itself as well as it can this regular season. All the evidence points to a bona fide contender who deserves to be the favorite for the NBA title. Their destruction of the league's "good" teams proves just how powerful this team is.