In the last few days, probability became certainty in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one win away from clinching the No. 1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference, holding a five-game lead with five games to go over the Boston Celtics. A few spots below, the Detroit Pistons became the sixth East team to lock in a Top-6 playoff spot, joining Indiana, New York and Milwaukee behind Boston and Cleveland.
A fair bit lower on the ladder, the Toronto Raptors wre officially eliminated from postseason contention, and are all-but locked into 11th. That means the four Play-In Tournament teams are likewise set: the Orlando Magic, the Miami Heat, the Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls.
What will not be set during the regular season is which team the Cavaliers will face in the first round of the playoffs. Those four teams will battle it out to see who advances to fill the seventh and eighth seeds in the East bracket, meaning the Cavs won't know their opponent until just before the start of the playoffs.
The Celtics in second will have a bit more clarity, as the teams in seventh and eighth will duke it out to claim that seventh spot; Boston will have their list narrowed to two much earlier, and they will learn by mid-week before the start of the palyoffs who they face.
Cleveland's opponent will take longer. The loser of the 7-8 game will play the winner of the 9-10 game, so who they ultimately play will be a mystery for much longer. Any of the four teams are an option, and will remain so for more than a week from now.
Of those four teams, whould the Cavaliers have a preference in who they face? Which team should scare them a bit, and which teams would they be prepared to bowl over? Let's look at all four potential foes ranked by how much Cleveland would like to play them, starting with a familiar foe from last season.
No. 4: Orlando Magic
Of the four teams fighting for a chance to play the Cavaliers, the team Cleveland least wants to see is the Orlando Magic. They played one another to seven games a season ago, and while this year's Cavs team is much better than last year's, and this Magic team both injured and worse, there is the potential for such a series to turn into a rock fight.
Paolo Banchero is inefficient but an incredibly gifted scorer at power forward, while Franz Wagner will take advantage of Cleveland's lack of size on the wing in the starting lineup. They have been hot-and-cold this season, but when their shot is falling they have the inside-out game to scare teams.
Defensively, they can match up with the Cavaliers' guards, the only team in the Play-In Tournament that can say that. Cleveland should still be massively favored, but they would prefer the Magic win their first game and play Boston in the first round.
No. 3: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have by far the best postseason track record of the Play-In teams. They have been to the NBA Finals twice in the last five seasons, and reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in a third. May of their key players have buckets of postseason experience.
And yet - Jimmy Butler is no longer on the team, and this group lacks the upside he brought. Playoff Jimmy is nowhere to be found, and the likes of Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins are not carrying this team to some mountain of postseaosn glory.
Still, this is a veteran team that will not go down easily. Cleveland will not be able to blow out this candle; they will need to smother the embers before it fans into an all-out flame. Bam Adebayo is an elite competitor and is one of the few players capable of matching up with Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers would love for the Heat to fall short.
No. 2: Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls have found their groove as of late, winning 11 of their last 14 games to surge into ninth place. Coby White has been on fire, Josh Giddey has found his swagger and even rookie Matas Buzelis is showing signs of life. This is the hottest team in the Play-In Tournament.
Even so, this is a team that does not scare the Cavaliers. They are 3-0 against Chicago this season with an average scoring margin of 18 points. Their bigs will destroy the Bulls' front line, and while White and Giddey are playing well on offense, they have no answers defensively for stopping both of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. This should be a sweep if it comes to pass.
No. 1: Atlanta Hawks
This may seem like a strange pick on the surface for the team the Cavaliers most want to face. The Atlanta Hawks have defeated Cleveland twice this season, something only the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics can also claim. They figured something out that worked to take down the Cavs.
Yet that will only provide Cleveland with motivation not to overlook the 1-8 series but to take it seriously. They will want to take it to the Hawks to prove those back-to-back losses were an early season fluke. What's more, the Hawks are very much a different team: their leading scorers in that game included Jalen Johnson and De'Andre Hunter, with Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela playing key roles.
None of them will be in uniform for a very different Hawks team, and it will open up chances for Cleveland to absolutely light up Atlanta. It will be bittersweet to face Caris LeVert and Georges Niang, but that doesn't mean the Cavs will let up in any way. They will likely come out motivated, focused and on fire to sweep past these short-handed Hawks with impunity.