The Cleveland Cavaliers have plenty to focus on for this season. Kenny Atkinson continues to craft the best lineup combinations for a team that is chasing the top overall seed and ultimately an NBA title.
Yet the front office is also looking ahead, planning for this summer and beyond. While the coaching staff is game planning and the players working out, drilling and studying tape, the front office is looking further ahead to what will happen once the Cavaliers' season ends.
That includes having a plan for each free agent. Will Cleveland try to bring them back? What sort of contract are they willing to offer? For a Cavs team that is likely to push over the second luxury tax apron next season after raises kick in for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, every dollar counts.
Let's look at the four fully-rostered players who are heading for free agency and discuss who is likely to return and who is likely to walk out the door and sign with another team.
No. 4: Sam Merrill should return next season
The Cavaliers were not Sam Merrill's first team, but they are the team that first gave him a real NBA chance. The sharpshooting wing seized that chance, carving out a full-time rotation role on a top-flight team.
Merrill is making pennies this season on the deal he signed out of the G League, but the Cavaliers have full Bird Rights on Merrill and can sign him to any deal for next year. He is unlikely to have a robust market outside of Cleveland, so a deal in the range of Dean Wade's contract may work for both sides -- 3-years, $20 million.
No. 3: Tristan Thompson could return next season
Tristan Thompson is not a contributing member of the Cleveland Cavaliers' on-court product. When he is not ticking off the entire city of Toronto with last-second dunks, he is providing some level of veteran and championship experience in the locker room.
The Cavs will need a better option at backup center for next season, but it's possible they value Thompson's leadership enough to also give him a roster spot, the "Udonis Haslem" memorial seat. If not Cleveland, however, Thompson's NBA playing career is probably over.
No. 2: Javonte Green might return next season
Javonte Green specifically agreed to a buyout with the New Orleans Pelicans so that he could sign with the Cavaliers; he clearly values winning and contending for something that matters.
It's too early to see how he fits with the rest of the roster and if Cleveland would want to bring him back. Even if they do, he will likely have a better offer from another team that can do more than the $2.7 million or so they can offer as a starting salary. If he wants to prioritize winning, however, there may be no better place than Cleveland.
No. 1: Ty Jerome will find it difficult to return next season
The Cleveland Cavaliers love Ty Jerome. They have given him a large role off the bench and he has soared, becoming a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate in his breakout season. He genuinely seems to love playing for the Cavs, and the addition of his college teammate and close friend De'Andre Hunter should only increase that affection.
At the same time, this breakout season is earning Jerome a lot of money on the open market. The Cavs have Early Bird Rights, which means they can offer a deal at the average player salary, likely in the $12 million range for a starting number.
Jerome is worth more than that given his strength of player this season, but given his injury history and the lack of cap space teams this summer his best offers may be at the Mid-Level Exception. If that is the case, he can sign back with the Cavs for a deal only a few million less.
If another team comes in with a larger offer, however, the Cavaliers have nothing they can do to match such a deal. What's more, they may not even be comfortable offering the $12 million, in which case Jerome will almost certainly leave. Cleveland is about to get significantly more expensive, and every additional contract they shell out is that much further they will be pushed into the luxury tax and above the second apron.
That's why it seems increasingly likely that Jerome is playing himself out of a return to Cleveland. That is an incredible help to their chances this season, but the front office has to look beyond, and that future may have a Ty Jerome-shaped hole.