Predicting Ty Jerome's next contract after his hot start to the season

Ty Jerome is going to get paid.

The former Virginia guard is having a career year, shattering expectations and becoming one of the most impactful players on the roster. Jerome is putting up a career-high 11.8 points per game in just 18.5 minutes of playing time, and is shooting an insane 55.1 percent from 3-point range.

After missing all but two games last season with a significant ankle injury, it was uncertain whether Jerome would be able to get his career back on track. Jerome has done that and more, shooting better than he ever has, playing with confidence and establishing a new baseline of play. The coup de grace for his breakout start to the year came in a recent start against the New Orleans Pelicans; filling in for Darius Garland, Jerome hit seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in the first half to stake out a lead that the Cavaliers would never relinquish.

Such a leap is causing shockwaves throughout the team; the Cleveland Cavaliers are 16-1, and at least a large part of that hot start has been due to Jerome being one of the best backup guards in the league. They have the No. 1 offense and are still lightyears ahead of anyone else in terms of shooting efficiency; again, Jerome has played a major role. The Cavaliers have essentially added for free a high-level bench player who can play with any of the other stars on the team and adds playmaking and shooting at high levels.

Where the shockwaves hit Jerome and his future is that the 27-year-old is rising into a new echelon of players. After signing a two-way contract in Golden State just a few years ago and playing well enough to earn a two-year deal at essentially the minimum, Jerome will be in line for a larger deal when he hits unrestricted free agency this upcoming offseason.

That begs the question: how much will Ty Jerome earn on his next contract? And will the Cavaliers be able to keep him? Let's look at three scenarios for Jerome's next deal and then pick which one we think that he will earn.

No. 1: The Bird Rights pay bump

Written into the rules that NBA teams live by is something called "Bird Rights" where a team is given a financial means to keep its players and give them a pay increase that other teams could not offer. These kick in after a player is with a team for at least three seasons (players traded on a multi-year contract usually take their "Bird Rights" with them in a deal) and allow the team to sign them to a new deal at anything up to the max, even if it means exceeding the salary cap or tax apron. (Note: they are named for Celtics legend Larry Bird, not because they have anything to do with winged avians).

After one season a team gains a player's "Non-Bird Rights" which allows them to re-sign a player at 120 percent of his former salary. If a player signs a one-year, $10 million contract, for example, their team could offer a new deal starting at a maximum of $12 million. If it's a multiple-year contract, the deal could increase from there according to normal contract rules (usually up to an eight percent raise).

When a team has employed a player for exactly two seasons, they gain "Early Bird Rights" which work similarly but allow for a first-year pay increase of 175 percent. That's what applies to Ty Jerome if he remains with the Cavaliers and hits free agency next summer.

Jerome is making $2.5 million this season, which means with Early Bird Rights he is eligible for a new contract starting at $4.37 million for 2025-26. It could be a one-year deal, or perhaps a two-year deal with a player option, allowing Jerome to stick around and earn full Bird Rights a year down the line to increase his salary even more.

It's unlikely that Jerome would lock himself into such a relatively-small pay raise for a long-term deal, so let's say this option is most realistically something like a two-year, $9.1 million contract with a second-year player option.

No. 2: The Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception

If a team wants to sign a player but doesn't have their Bird Rights, or wants to exceed the Bird Rights that they have, they need cap space to do so. For teams whose team salary is higher than the salary cap, the NBA awards a handful of "salary cap exceptions" that they can use to sign players. These include the Bi-Annual Exception (the smallest), the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (the largest) and the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which falls right in the middle.

Currently, the Cleveland Cavaliers have $191.97 million in contracts committed for 2025-26, which includes new deals kicking in for Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell. They have 10 players under contract, with the most notable rotation players hitting free agency including Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill and Ty Jerome.

At that number, if the Cavaliers filled out the remainder of the roster with minimum contracts, they would be right at the first luxury tax apron -- well above the projected salary cap of $154 million and right at the first luxury tax apron of $195 million. That leaves the team around $11 million below the second apron; if they remain below that line they can use the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to re-sign one of their players or to sign a new player to a contract.

The Taxpayer MLE projects to around $5.68 million next season as a starting salary, which is not all that much more than Jerome's Early Bird Rights. A four-year contract at that amount could start at $5.68 million and increase by five percent each season, for a total amount of $24.5 million.

No. 3: He signs in free agency with another team

The most lucrative path likely to be available to Ty Jerome is to sign with another team, likely one less burdened by tax apron restrictions. If that is the case, the question becomes not what the Cavaliers can offer him, but how much is he worth on the open market?

Jerome is hitting every shot he puts up this season, but his career mark of 36.9 percent from 3-point range speaks to a good, not elite, shooter. A month of hot shooting is a positive development, but it's not going to open up an armored trunk of cash on its own.

If Jerome can continue to shoot at an elite level -- not 55 percent, but well above 40 percent for the season -- suddenly he is establishing a new baseline of competence as a shooter. Given the importance of shooting in the modern NBA, that will translate to more interested teams and therefore more moeny available on the market.

Jerome has good size for the point guard position at 6'5", and combined with his shooting ability that means he can play either backcourt position. His playmaking is strong as well, so he can run a team's bench unit with aplomb. Defensively he is nothing to write home about, but he competes and has size so that helps him not be a turnstile on that end of the court. His steal rate this year of 2.9 percent is likewise a career high.

There would likely be teams interested in signed Jerome for north of $10 million per season. Competent point guard play is extremely valuable, and Jerome is still in the prime of his career. Add in his hot shooting, and if that continues you get a player many teams would want.

Could Jerome sign something like a four-year, $45 million contract on the open market? It seems very possible. He could also fit into a team's mid-level exception, which over four years would be more in the four-year, $60 million range at a maximum. Given that he will turn 30 during a long deal and has just one fantastic season to his name, he probably canot find more than that unless another team falls in love with him as a starter.

Verdict: How much will Ty Jerome earn on his next contract?

The Cavaliers love Ty Jerome, and he is flourishing in Cleveland. There is something to be said for continuing a relationship that is clearly working so well. Yet at the same time, the Cavaliers have some significant financial barriers to overcome as soon as next summer. If they bring back Caris LeVert, for example, it makes it nearly impossible to fathom raises for Sam Merrill and Ty Jerome.

The Taxpayer MLE route seems like a non-starter; it isn't a significant raise for Jerome on his Non Bird Rights, and it handcuffs the Cavaliers to staying under the second apron, which means Caris LeVert walks for nothing and like Sam Merrill does, too.

There is something attractive about the route of signing Jerome to a "1+1" deal at his Early Bird Rights, waiting a year, then giving him a raise if he opts out. He gets some security in case he suffers another significant injury or completely falls off a cliff, but if he continues to thrive in this system he could then secure a large raise in 2026.

The problem with that path forward is that the Cavaliers are getting extremely expensive in the coming years, so committing a large amount of money to Jerome in two seasons is a tall order. Can they justify that cost when it may mean a trip over the second apron and all of the penalties that come with it?

Similarly, that's a lot of risk for Jerome, who is coming off of a two-year minimum contract and is just three removed from being on a two-way deal. If he can lock in long-term money, especially at eight figures a year, he probably has to take it. Even if that means leaving Kenny Atkinson and the Cavaliers.

Verdict: Four years, $40 million deal with another team