NBA Cup Cheat Sheet: What Cavaliers need to root for Thanksgiving week

Week 3 of the NBA Cup competition has arrived, and it comes during a festive week. Thanksgiving is called "Feast Week" around college basketball because of a series of in-season tournaments that take place this week.

With the NBA Cup, the professionals are now engaging in their own Feast Week. Only three NBA Cup nights remain, including tonight and Black Friday (when games will begin at noon ET - enjoy!). That means group leaders are taking shape, teams are being eliminated, and the potential for chaos is only increasing.

What should the Cleveland Cavaliers and their fans be rooting for this week in NBA Cup games? Let's look at all of the significant contests that matter for the Cavs and their chances of advancing. For a look at East Group C and where the Cavs are specifically, check out our NBA Cup landing page here.

Bulls @ Wizards tonight: Close game

The only Group C game happening tonight is between the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards - and there is essentially no rooting interest for the Cavaliers. The Wizards are 0-2 and all-but eliminated, with a -24 point differential that means even if the group stumbled to a multi-team 2-2 finish they would almost certainly not figure.

From the standpoint of the Chicago Bulls, they are currently 1-1 with a -4 point differential. The Cavaliers will be rooting for them to win later in the week, but tonight the result is largely immaterial. If the Bulls lose, they will be eliminated. If they win, they will either finish 2-2 with a loss to the Celtics (and be eliminated) or 3-1 and then lose the head-to-head with the Cavaliers if they are 3-1.

There is technically a scenario where the Bulls win out and the Cavaliers beat the Hawks but lose to the Wizards, allowing the Bulls to win the group at 3-1, but that seems unlikely enough that it doesn't need to be top of mind. The absolute "best-case" from this game would be a close Washington win.

Bucks @ Heat tonight: Single-digit Miami win

In East Group B, the 1-1 Miami Heat play host to the 2-0 Milwaukee Bucks. If the Cavaliers end up as a 3-1 Wild Card contender, they would probably like for the point differentials in East Group B to be more muted. It's fine with the Bucks win and win again next week against the Pistons, but ideally the Heat can knock the Bucks down and make them both 2-1 with point differentials in the teens. Currently, Miami is +11 at 1-1 and the Bucks are +26 at 2-0.

Knicks @ Hornets on Friday: Charlotte win

The New York Knicks are currently 2-0 with a +14 point differential. Their showdown next week against the 2-0 Magic will decide the group, as one of the two is guaranteed to finish at least 3-1. That means this game for New York is about setting them up to be 2-2 if they lose to the Magic; the Cavs would ideally be the only 3-1 team among the Wild Card candidates.

Magic @ Nets on Friday: Blowout Brooklyn win

In East Group A, the Orlando Magic have a dominant point differential of +37, the highest in the Eastern Conference. Ideally, the Magic will beat the Knicks next week and win the group, taking them out of the running for the Wild Card. Otherwise, the best outcome for the Cavaliers is for the Nets to blow Orlando out, knocking that point differential down the ladder significantly. Brooklyn is currently 1-2 with a -16 point differential, so a big win would merely put them 2-2 with a mediocre differential, which is no realistic threat to the Cavaliers.

Celtics @ Bulls: Chicago win

Other than the Cavaliers' own games, this is the most important single game for the Cavs and their fans to be watching. If Cleveland wins both of their remaining games, they will finish 3-1 and likely have a strong point differential (they are +15 and get to play the Wizards next week). The problem is that if the Celtics finish 3-1, the tiebreaker is head-to-head record, which would put the Celtics through even if the Cavaliers have a better point differential.

The Cavs could still advance as the Wild Card team, but ideally the Celtics would lose to the Chicago Bulls on Friday evening. That would knock them down to 2-2 and a longshot to make the Knockout Stage, and put the Cavaliers in prime position to advance. A Celtics win guarantees the Cavaliers will not win the group; a Celtics win and a Hawks win over the Cavs eliminates Cleveland entirely and puts the Hawks through as the group winner.

Cavaliers @ Hawks on Friday: Big Cavs win

To have any chance at advancing the Cavaliers need to beat the Atlanta Hawks in Georgia on Friday afternoon (tip-off is 2:30 PM ET). The Hawks are currently 2-1 but have just a -1 point differential, so if they lose they are almost certainly eliminated from any sort of chance to advance.

For the Cavaliers, they want to have the best possible point differential and be sitting at 2-1 heading into a home game against the Washington Wizards next week. A 20-point victory puts them in excellent position to advance, either as the group winner or as the Wild Card team.