The Cleveland Cavaliers learned a lesson a long time ago that that the Lakers and their fans are facing anew this season.
The Los Angeles Lakers have to be thankful that LeBron James chose to come to town. He did so, signing in free agency in 2018, despite years of stumbling into the lottery and no track record of elite team-building. LeBron went to LA for business, for family, for money — not to maximize his winning potential.
Yet because LeBron James was there, the Lakers have certainly experienced a lot of winning. That included a dominant season in 2019-20 that led to a championship, the fourth of LeBron's career and the Lakers' first since 2010. The Lakers also made a run to the Western Conference Finals in 2023, and LeBron has continued to be an All-NBA force and elevate rosters that were much weaker than the average contending roster.
That's something that Cavaliers fans are quite familiar with. At times they had the perfect mix of supporting stars and role players around LeBron, and that led to incredible postseason success, including the 2016 title and a team in 2017 that was even better but had to face one of the greatest teams of all time in the NBA Finals, the 2017 Golden State Warriors.
At other times, however, the Cavs struggled to surround LeBron James with the right players, just as the Lakers have done the same. For every Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or JR Smith who thrive alongside James, there is a Dion Waiters or Russell Westbrook who absolutely does not.
That's not the focus of this article, however; the entire NBA has known for years that to maximize LeBron James you surround him with shooting and defense. The problem has been that over time, James has slowly (very slowly!) felt the effects of aging, and it has led to an increase in something that was once a feature and is now a bug: he takes plays off during games.
LeBron James takes plays off
Michael Jordan is without question one of the greatest competitors and athletes in the history of the NBA, and he went out every night trying to rip the heads off of his opponents. He would trash talk them, embarrass them defensively, shooting right in their face and dunk on their head. He would then turn that flamethrower on his teammates, tearing them down if they were not perfect and trying to drive them toward excellence through maniacal needling and pushing.
It obviously worked for Jordan -- six titles, five MVPs, 10 scoring titles. He is considered one of the greatest players of all time, if not the greatest by many, especially those who saw him play live. Yet it also wore through Jordan; he had to lean into his vices in-between games, he walked away from basketball for most of two seasons in the middle of his run, and then retired well before LeBron did (multiple times).
LeBron has always managed himself in a different way. He keeps much of his life more private, he doesn't have the same obvious addictions that Jordan had, and he takes a much less direct path to pushing his teammates and organizations, often using passive aggressive language to the media instead of tearing them apart to their face.
The same goes for his approach to saving his best for last. James deserves a lot of credit for being healthy for so much of every season of his career; part of that is inherent genetic toughness and a body that heals quickly, part of that is his incredible work to care for his body; and part is how he takes his foot off the gas during games.
Cavaliers fans are well familiar with how LeBron will take plays off during games, letting a teammate run the offense or playing conservative defense on the other end. It's not something he did in his first few seasons in the league, but he has learned the art over the years. During his second tenure he down-shifted more and more during regular season games to preserve himself for both the ends of those games and for the postseason.
That was most evident in 2017-18, when LeBron was surrounded by the least-talented team of his second run in Cleveland. That team won just 50 games, finishing as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. LeBron played in all 82 games, averaging a league-leading 36.9 minutes per game. To make that possible, he had to pick his spots during games. It worked; LeBron had enough left in the tank to carry the Cavs through the playoff bracket all the way to the NBA Finals.
LeBron needs more time off with the Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers now have to face that reality with a LeBron James who is no longer at the peak of his powers. James deserves a tower of Olympic gold medals for how he has staved off Father Time better than any basketball player in NBA history (Kareem played a long time, but he was a shell of himself the last few seasons). Yet at the same time, the effects of aging have been even more stark this year, including in how he picks his spots during games and from game-to-game during the season.
Some nights, he "has it" - whether because he had time off beforehand or his body is feeling good. On those nights, he is still driving to the rim and putting up numbers that are unthinkable for a man just two weeks away from turning 40 years old. On other nights, however, he doesn't have the juice, and he is stuck settling for jumpers and letting opposing players drive right past him.
The past two seasons, James' usage rate dipped below 30 percent for the first time since 2004-05. His 3-point attempt rate, however, has increased as he has moved more and more of his shots outside -- which take less force and explosion to generate. His 55.2 percent shooting on 2-pointers is his worst in nine years. That's in part driven by his shot location; he has taken shots at the rim and moved them behind the 3-point arc, but is still taking the same diet of long 2-pointers. He just can't get past defenders and into the paint on every play anymore.
The difference is even more stark on defense. His steal rate is at a career-low, and he has an outright negative Defensive Box Plus-Minus for the first time since his rookie season. The Los Angeles Lakers are allowing 119.1 points per 100 possessions when James is on the court per Cleaning the Glass, one of the worst numbers in the league. When he is off the court, that number plummets to 108.1, one of the best numbers in the league.
Add it all together, and the Lakers are 16 points per 100 worse as a team when LeBron plays than when he doesn't, again per Cleaning the Glass. Somehow, inexplicably, the Lakers are extremely better when playing without their superstar forward. It is the first time in his entire career that LeBron has not had a positive on/off number. Last season the Lakers were +8.3 points per 100 possessions when he played vs when he didn't.
LeBron simply doesn't have it in the tank to play at a high level every play, or even most of them. He is picking his spots, and those spots are becoming few and far between. Even in games where he is extremely active and racks up 30+ points or logs another triple double, he is largely doing so by shooting jumpers instead of his trademark downhill destruction.
The Cavaliers saw up-close and personal how LeBron manages himself during a game and during a season to be at his best when it really matters. The Lakers have to hope that is what is happening now. If not, and if LeBron is truly aging quickly right before our eyes, then he may not have anything left when he tries to throw things into gear and give his all in the postseason.