For much of the past 10 or so months, the idea of Jayson Tatum returning at any point during the 2025-26 NBA season felt like a bit of a fantasy after tearing his Achilles in the NBA Playoffs last May.
However, on March 6, Tatum did what seemed like the impossible for so long -- returned to the court after just 10 months of recovery. For much of the Eastern Conference, this was an extremely unpleasant surprise, as what looked like a weak race all of a sudden became a lot of crowded.
The Boston Celtics, the 2024 NBA Champions and perennial East favorite got their superstar back, adding him to the mix of Jaylen Brown amongst as career year, as well as the likes of Derrick White and others.
Despite the initial shock, things haven't gone as smoothly for Tatum as he may have hoped. After eight games of action, the 28-year old is averaging 19.1 points per game (his lowest since 2018-19), 8.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 38.8 percent shooting from the field as well as a measly 29.3 percent from 3-point range.
It may be in Cleveland's best interest to see Boston in an earlier round of the playoffs
While Tatum may be medically cleared, he quite evidently isn't his healthiest right now, which he himself has indicated. Major injuries take time, and while Achilles injuries are recovering faster than ever before, 10 months is incredibly quick.
Take Kevin Durant for example.
He tore his Achilles on June 10, 2019 in an NBA Finals game with the Golden State Warriors. He then missed the entire 2019-20 season and didn't return to NBA action again until a 2020-21 preseason game on December 13, 2020 (COVID-shortened schedule). There were other barriers in play, but that's over 18 months of recovery, close to double what Tatum had, and Durant was able to return to his elite form that year.
When Tatum came back, the narrative for the Cleveland Cavaliers instantly shifted to the idea that they needed to avoid the two or three seed. With the Detroit Pistons likely to clinch the top seed in the conference, Boston seemed slated to take second or third.
As it currently stands, both the Celtics and New York Knicks are tied for five games behind Detroit. The Cavs are sitting comfortably in fourth at seven and a half games separating itself and the Pistons.
A couple of weeks ago this may have seemed like the ideal spot. Boston is rounding into form and if it ended like this, at least one of the Celtics and Knicks would be knocked out by the conference finals, where hopefully Cleveland would be waiting.
To be completely frank, this is sound logic. Cade Cunningham's status is up in the air for the start of the postseason so Detroit is looking as weak as it has all season long.
As the four seed in the first round, the Cavaliers would face someone emerging from the mess of the Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat. Plus, for what it's worth, all three of Detroit, Boston and New York would have to play one of these six teams first too.
But, with that said, let's say that Cleveland, amidst a late season surge that has led them to a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, take over the three seed and send the Knicks down to the four. Now, they'll theoretically get a worse opponent in the first round, and Boston in the second.
As established above, Tatum's injury management is an ongoing process. The longer he plays, the more comfortable he'll likely be and the more comfortable he is the closer he'll get to his All-NBA form. Perhaps, it would be in the Cavaliers' interest to face Boston in the second round rather than the Eastern Conference Finals.
That would mean one to two weeks less recovery for Tatum and therefore, he'll be one to two weeks weaker. This idea isn't perfect, though.
This line of thinking comes with the implication that Cleveland essentially cannot beat Boston at full strength, which may not be true. The Celtics handled the Cavaliers the last time these two faced off in 2024, but time and circumstance have changed things.
Also, this same logic can apply to Cunningham's status. If we think about it the same way, Cleveland would want to face Detroit sooner rather than later to avoid Cunningham to get fully healthy once again. But, the consensus would say that healthy Boston is superior to healthy Detroit.
The Cavaliers' matchup with the Celtics is worth exploring
In 2024, Tatum was far and away Boston's best player in its series against Cleveland. While he didn't shoot the ball great (27.3 percent from deep), he averaged 26 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.
In that series, the Cavaliers struggled with injuries and didn't have the ideal personnel to match up with the big wing. Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Marcus Morris, Georges Niang and Dean Wade all saw stints guarding Tatum.
Now, things line up a tad better. Wade is probably the best Tatum-stopper in his increased role, and Mobley and Jaylon Tyson could also do it somewhat well. The problem persists that with Boston's ultra-shooting lineups -- if Kenny Atkinson wants to play Mobley and Jarrett Allen together, and not have Mobley guard Tatum, who would he guard?
If Atkinson deployed him on the likes of Sam Hauser or Baylor Scheierman, the Cavaliers would either have to give up wide open 3s to maximize Mobley's defensive ability or self-neutralize his impact. Either way, not ideal.
With a hampered Tatum, Cleveland could very well have Mobley guard him, play Allen on a center and have the rest of the pieces: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and another wing of choice fit in much better positionally.
All of this is to say that from both the health and matchup standpoints, it would very much behoove the Cavaliers to see the Celtics in an earlier round rather than a later one.