4 All-Stars? How each Cavaliers star can make the All-Star Game in San Francisco

There is no question that the Cleveland Cavaliers have been the most impressive team in the NBA this season. That success is propelled not by a single star or even a dynamic duo, but by four stars all working together to overwhelm and conquer opponents. 33-4 is something to behold.

While the four stars in Cleveland have earned the respect of the organization and local fans, that doesn't mean they are a lock to all be named All-Stars this year. With fan voting underway for the 5 Eastern Conference Starters and the vast majority of games played that will influence the decisions of the league's coaches for the final 7 spots, the shape of the rosters is beginning to take place -- as is the path each Cavaliers star will need to take to make the team.

Is there a scenario where all four make the team? Let's look at the path for each individual player, then conclude the odds that all four make it to San Francisco to compete in the All-Star Game this year.

Donovan Mitchell - Lock to be a Starter

All-Star Starters are chosen by a three-part voting system. The fan vote accounts for 50 percent, while a media panel and the current players vote on their starters and make up 25 percent of the vote each.

Each week the NBA reveals the updated fan voting totals, and will do so one more time next week before the voting ends on January 20th. On January 23rd the 10 starters will then be announced.

Donovan Mitchell currently looks like a lock to be a starter this year. He currently ranks second in fan voting, behind LaMelo Ball, who is both very popular but also the first name that populates if you sort by either points (the default) or "Fantasy points" which are likely the two most likely sorting methods. He's getting a procedural bump without a doubt.

If Mitchell finishes second in fan voting, it also seems likely he will be first or second in media voting alongside Jalen Brunson. Unless the players somehow band together to exclude Mitchell -- an extremely unlikely act given the Cavaliers' success, Mitchell's standing as a star and his general likeability -- he looks like a lock to start for the East All-Stars.

Evan Mobley - Lock to be a Reserve

Evan Mobley is having a phenomenal breakout season, and he is on track to be seriously considered for an All-NBA Team at the end of the season. That would seem to make him a lock to make the All-Star team as well.

That path won't be as a starter, however. Mobley is well behind the pack in fan voting, which is not uncommon for first-time All-Stars who are not primary offensive engines. If Mobley was averaging 28 points per game but less effective on defense he would have more fan attention, but wouldn't be a better player.

Even if Mobley is voted in the Top 3 by the media panel (somewhat likely) and players (unlikely), and even if he makes a late surge in fan voting to finish sixth instead of eighth, his average result won't be higher than Karl-Anthony Towns, currently third in fan voting. He is at worst going to finish fourth or fifth in media voting and is a more popular and established star for players to support. That means his average finish will be ahead of Mobley's.

You may as well write Mobley in ink for a reserve spot, however. Coaches not only tend to value two-way impact more, but as we will discuss shortly, the competition in the East Frontcourt is relatively slim. Mobley isn't officially a lock to make his first All-Star Game, but it's close.

Jarrett Allen - Better case than you think

We discuss Jarrett Allen first here because he actually has a better chance of making the All-Star team than you might expect given his status as the "fourth" of this team's star players and his pedestrian scoring numbers. Yes, Allen's case was buoyed significantly by his demolition of the Oklahoma City Thunder on national television, but there is another factor at play as well.

While the fact that Allen's name doesn't show up at all on the Top 10 of East Frontcourt players in the fan vote returns, many of the players above him are unlikely to be chosen by the coaches as reserves due to a lack of games played or overall ineffectiveness this season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have played at an All-Star level when healthy, but they have missed too much time. The same goes for Joel Embiid, whose team is also terrible.

Paul George has missed a lot of time and is also having his worst season in a decade. And are East coaches truly going to reward Jimmy Butler right now, especially since he'll have missed at least 16 games already this season by the end of his current suspension. It seems highly unlikely he would make the team.

At least six "Frontcourt" players have to make the initial team for the Eastern Conference. Assuming the starters are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum and Karl-Anthony Towns, and that Jaylen Brown and Evan Mobley are locks for two more slots, that leaves one opening. Who will challenge Allen for that spot?

You can tip your hat to seasons by Atlanta's Jalen Johnson or Toronto's RJ Barrett, but neither are at an All-Star level. The only real challenger is Pascal Siakam, who has the benefit of being a multi-time All-Star before; players are more likely to make the All-Star Team if they have been before. Allen has one All-Star berth to his name, while Siakam has two and two All-NBA selections.

If the Indiana Pacers continue to rise up the standings they will get some buzz for an All-Star, and coaches may find it easier to reward Siakam rather than force in Tyrese Haliburton to a more crowded guard field. Still, Allen is probably the favorite right now to make the team, a shocking and exciting thing to say for Cavaliers fans.

Darius Garland - Uphill battle

Darius Garland is perhaps more "deserving" of an All-Star berth than Jarrett Allen, and is certainly a more common player type than Allen to make the team. He is a gifted perimeter scorer and high-volume passer and playmaker who shoots the lights out from deep and just dropped 40 points in a game that Donovan Mitchell missed.

The problem for Garland is that the competition among Eastern Conference guards is fierce. The list of players above Garland in the voting for starters is not a list of injured players not likely to make it; instead, it's a list of players who all expect to make the team. Only six of them will even if both Wild Card slots are given to guards (as they almost certainly will be).

Whether or not Garland makes the team will probably come down to who the second starter next to Mitchell is. And that may come down to whether the media panel gives any votes to Damian Lillard or Garland himself.

Garland won't be named a starter, but if he or any other East guards can garner a media vote it will make it less likely that LaMelo Ball makes the team. Ball is currently first in fan voting, with a slim but unlikely shot of Mitchell catching him and bumping him to second. That gives him a strong advantage to be named the other starter.

How the voting works for media is that if a player does not show up on any of their ballots he receives credit as if he was "next" - so if all of the media vote for Mitchell and Jalen Brunson, Ball will be ranked third in media vote, tied with Lillard and Trae Young and Garland, etc. If the media vote is more spread out -- let's say Lillard gets two votes, Trae Young gets a vote and Garland gets a vote -- then suddenly Ball is ranked sixth, which could be enough to pull him down if Brunson is third in fan voting but second in player and media.

If Ball is not a starter, there is a chance he is not selected as a reserve, either, given that he has missed 11 games already and plays for an 8-27 team. That opens up a spot for another East guard to make the team. If Mitchell and Brunson are starters, and you can reasonably expect Lillard and Trae Young to make the team (Young leads the league in assists by a large margin and the Hawks are in the postseason mix) that leaves two Wild Card slots.

Cade Cunningham is having an excellent season for the upstart Detroit Pistons, so he will get some love. Tyrese Haliburton was an All-NBA player last season but got off to a slow start this year; he would be right in the mix if the Pacers continue winning, but his vote may also be split by some coaches choosing Siakam as their Indiana representative.

Derrick White is having a great year for the Boston Celtics, but their recent wobbles make it unlikely they would get three All-Stars. Tyler Herro is having a breakout season and could be in the mix. Tyrese Maxey has name value but has been shaky this year and the 76ers have been terrible.

If Ball misses out as a starter, Garland has a real shot to make it in, perhaps alongside Cade Cunningham as the second Wild Card. If Ball makes it, it seems more likely that Lillard, Young and Cunningham would all have more support as guards than Garland, especially if some voters decide to "reward" the Cavs via Allen rather than Garland.

Will the Cavaliers have 4 All-Stars?

Having four All-Stars is a difficult accomplishment. The Golden State Warriors did it once after Kevin Durant arrived. The Atlanta Hawks did it once when they had a breakout 60-win season, but that was a stretch much more than it would be for the Cavaliers.

It's a lock for the Cavaliers to have two All-Stars, and they are in great shape to have at least three, with Allen more likely than Garland because of the competition among East stars. There is a very real chance this team has four, however, even before factoring in the possibility of any injury replacements.

The Cavaliers are led by their stars, and they could see them all representing the franchise in San Francisco next month.