Understanding the NBA Trade Deadline can be a difficult proposition -- whether you are a fan of the Cleveland Cavaliers or simply the NBA as a whole.
One has to understand nearly everything about an NBA team to see how they will interact with the rest of the league in pursuing and fielding trades. How do their players mesh on the court; where are there strengths, and where are there weaknesses? What is the priority and timeline of the organization as a whole? What is the financial picture both this year and beyond? Historically, how has that team conducted itself for midseason trades?
Now take that exercise and do it for 29 other teams. Then you can start to scratch the surface of what it looks like around the league as 30 front offices are continually calling one another to negotiate trade offers. It's a daunting task for any one person to pull off.
The popular Dunc'd On Basketball NBA Podcast attempts to simulate that process each year by conducting a "Mock Trade Deadline" where they gather four NBA analysts to run all 30 NBA teams and negotiate with one another as if they were actually running those front offices. It's not only illuminating to fans, but it often simulates what will happen at the Trade Deadline itself.
The full exercise is one of the best basketball podcasts anyone puts out all year, and is available only to subscribers. The first hour or so is free to the public and can be accessed here. That includes the discussion around potential trades for the league's most available and mercurial star, Jimmy Butler.
When discussing potential trade offers for Butler, the expected suitors got involved. The Phoenix Suns tried to find a suitor for Bradley Beal to make a trade possible. The Milwaukee Bucks made an offer but held back on their most valuable trade asset. The Sacramento Kings -- note the podcast was recorded prior to De'Aaron Fox's trade non-request -- offered a package centered around DeMar DeRozan.
One unexpected team got into the mix, at least for a moment. That team? The Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers could make a trade offer for Jimmy Butler
The thought process for Cleveland has been floating around since the Jimmy Butler trade saga began. He would finally give them the small forward they have never been able to find, he has a proven track record of leveling up in the postseason, and the star power of the group would be tremendous. Butler's game specifically also would shore up one of the few weaknesses of the
We actually discussed such a trade last month when it began to be clear Jimmy Butler may be on the move. At the time, however, the cost was quite high: we included the Cavaliers' 2031 first-round pick, a 2030 swap, and Jaylon Tyson -- essentially, the three best trade assets that Cleveland has. That deal didn't make much sense at the time, especially given the success the team was having.
Fast forward six weeks, and the Cavaliers are a little less transcendant, and the cost to acquire Butler has reprtedly gone down as he has continued to burn every bridge possible in South Beach. That led to a more moderate trade offer being made by Dan Feldman of Dunc'd On Basketball in their Mock Trade Deadline exercise. Here is that offer:
The Cavaliers would retain all three of those future assets to use in a different trade down the line, but still land an All-Star talent in Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat would break up his salary into four rotation players, any of whom could help them win now -- the Heat need to make the playoffs this season or land in an uncomfortable position with the draft picks they owe in the future -- or be flipped to another team.
The Heat probably want future draft capital of some sort, which is why they ultimately may not take this deal, but let's assume for the moment they would consider this. Should the Cavaliers make this offer?
On their own, none of these players holds a significant amount of individual value. Caris LeVert and Max Strus are both extremely valuable to the Cavaliers as currently constructed, Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang less so but still in the rotation. The Cavs would need the combination of Jimmy Butler and deep reserves to step up and fill the gaps.
The starting lineup would likely be Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The spacing for that group is obviously terrible, so Kenny Atkinson may lean even more into split lineups where only two of Butler, Mobley and Allen are on the court at the same time. That means mixing Dean Wade, Sam Merrill and rookie Jaylon Tyson in all the more, with Ty Jerome and Craig Porter Jr. playing consistent roles as well.
The Cavs would need to sign a few players off of the buyout market after this deal; perhaps they could have the Heat send back a minimum contract like Josh Richardson, Alec Burks or old friend Kevin Love to give them another warm body. If the Cavs can find a wing who can play to add, this deal gets all-the-more viable.
Yet do the Cavaliers really want to trade nearly half of their rotation for a temperamental, unpredictable star who will demand touches and potentially pout his way to the end of the season if Cleveland doesn't offer an immediate contract extension? It's not immediately clear if the best-case scenario for the Cavs is Butler re-signing on a lucrative new contract or not signing a deal and merely walking away. Both have massive downside.
The talent of Butler is significant, but he is also 35 years old, injury-prone and will put himself above the team in an instant. Players deserve some level of autonomy, but at some point basketball is a team sport.
The downsides are painful and obvious, and the upside has to be threaded through cramped spacing and perilously thin depth. This is a creative trade package that would give Cleveland a lot of star talent, but it's not worth the risk.
Grade: C