The Cleveland Cavaliers have earned a rest during All-Star Break.
Not that everyone on the team is getting one. While much of the roster can kick back and relax, the success of this team has propelled not just one, not just two, but three of their stars to the All-Star Game in San Francisco. Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland will all represent The Land in multiple events this weekend.
Looking beyond All-Star Weekend, where do things stand for the Cavaliers at the break? They are well past the halfway point of the season -- the All-Star Break has crept later and later and now represents the 2/3 point of the season -- but it's a weeklong break and a chance to evaluate the team and what is ahead.
Let's break it all down, starting with their playoff odds.
In This Piece
- Playoff Odds
- Strength of Schedule
- Injury Updates
- Starting Lineup
- Worst-Case Scenario
- Best-Case Scenario
- Award Watch
- 2nd Half Prediction
Playoff Odds
The Cleveland Cavaliers have not mathematically clinched a playoff berth. At 44-10 they are in first place in the Eastern Conference, 5.5 games ahead of the second-place Boston Celtics and 24 games ahead of the 11th-place Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets. With just 28 games to go, they are very nearly locked into a postseason berth.
From there, the "Magic Number" of wins the Cavaliers need to clinch at least the sixth seed is just 11, so that should be accomplished in early March. The Magic Number for the No. 1 overall seed is 23; that number will tick down as the Cavaliers win games and the Celtics lose them. They have a 93 percent chance at the No. 1 seed, per PlayoffStatus.com, and are essentially locked into the top two seeds.
For the playoffs overall, therefore, the Cavaliers are mathematically 99.9 percent likely to make the playoffs. Historically, they are a playoff lock; teams in their position have never missed the playoffs.
Strength of Schedule
The Cleveland Cavaliers have 28 games remaining, which is essentially average among the league's 30 teams. Three teams (the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers and Charlotte Hornets) have 30 games remaining, while three have as few as 26 to go (Orlando Magic, Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks).
In terms of strength of opponent, the Cavaliers have the 14th-ranked schedule remaining, tied with the Brooklyn Nets and essentially dead-center among the league's other teams. They have just a couple of games remaining against the very worst teams in the league -- one each against Utah and Charlotte, none remaining vs Washington, New Orleans or Toronto -- and still need to play the Boston Celtics once, the New York Knicks three times and the Memphis Grizzlies twice. At least they don't need to play themselves.
Injury Updates
The Cleveland Cavaliers continued to win as they rolled into the All-Star Break, but they did so limping a bit. Crucial forward Dean Wade has been recovering from a bone bruise in his knee since January and was ruled out through the All-Star Break weeks ago; he will likely not be ready when the Cavaliers resume play on February 20th, but it's possible he could return shortly thereafter.
Isaac Okoro has also been recovering from an injury, a shoulder issue similar to what Wade suffered last season. Kenny Atkinson relayed that Okoro could have played in the last couple of games before the break if needed, so he should be ready to go coming out of the break.
Finally, Ty Jerome missed Wednesday night's game with a calf injury that is not expected to be serious. He should be ready to go for the "second half" of the season.
Starting Lineup
Four of the five starters are locked in for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the fifth spot is still in question.
Max Strus had been starting at the 3, finally stepping full-time into the spot he was expected to take in the preseason before suffering an ankle injury. Yet the addition of De'Andre Hunter may signal a change on the horizon, as at some point down the stretch he may earn his way into the starting lineup over Strus.
Don't count out Dean Wade, either; he was a tremendous fit with the other starters while filling in for the injured Strus earlier in the season, and he has been the best fifth starter for years -- when healthy, of course. If he returns and plays the majority of games the rest of the way, it's possible he ends up as the fifth starter.
Worst-Case Scenario
At this point, the Cavaliers have both accomplished enough and proven enough that the very worst-case scenarios are not going to happen. They are not going to miss the playoffs, and it's very difficult to see them losing in the First Round.
The one thing they have to truly hope doesn't happen is an injury to Evan Mobley. He is not only their most versatile two-way player and best defensive player, he allows the Cavs to deploy 48 minutes of elite center play. We have documented that the third-string center spot is the weakest part of the roster, and an injury to Mobley (or Allen) would force Tristan Thompson into the rotation.
If Mobley goes down for an extended period of time, and the Cavaliers stumble a bit down the stretch, they could still end up as the No. 2 seed and forced to play a much more difficult second round opponent, likely the high-octane New York Knicks. It's possible that if they are less than full strength going into such a matchup that they are knocked off, ending their season right where it ended last year.
Best-Case Scenario
This one is fairly obvious: the best-cast scenario for the Cleveland Cavaliers is that they win the title, bringing the second championship in franchise history home to their fans. Donovan Mitchell proves himself a worthy Top-10 player in the world, Evan Mobley ascends to the level of star, and the role players come together to propel them to excellence.
The building blocks of such an outcome may come from the Celtics being less than 100 percent when they face them in the Eastern Conference Finals, or an ideal opponent coming out of the Western Conference. They don't want to see the Oklahoma City Thunder or Houston Rockets, but facing the Denver Nuggets or Memphis Grizzlies would be less scary.
Award Watch
Kenny Atkinson has long been the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, but he is receiving a strong push from J.B. Bickerstaff and Mark Daigneault is a strong candidate for a team that may have a better record than Cleveland at the end of the year. Atkinson remains the favorite, but the race has tightened.
If De'Andre Hunter continues to play well and stays on the bench, he has an outside shot at Sixth Man of the Year. Otherwise, there are probably not any other Cavaliers in position for an individual award; Donovan Mitchell has a great chance at placing 5th in MVP voting, a monumental honor, and Evan Mobley will likely make an All-Defense and All-NBA team, the latter sparking an increase in his starting salary next year.
2nd Half Prediction
The official prediction here? The Cleveland Cavaliers go 18-10 the rest of the way, making it to 62 wins and the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They demolish their first-round opponent and then take down the Indiana Pacers in six games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
From there, they face the Boston Celtics. Playoff experience is a powerful thing, and the Celtics have it in droves. At times Boston will struggle to contain the offensive force of the Cavaliers, but at other times Cleveland will struggle to stop the 5-out barrage of the Celtics.
In the end, the Cavaliers lose to the Celtics, who go on to lose in the NBA Finals to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Cleveland brings nearly everyone back next year hungry to finally reach the top.