The Cleveland Cavaliers have cracked open the door to disaster.
This is a team that is good enough to win it all. They have a team flush with stars, high-level depth that fits their needs, and a season of elite success to prove their worth. They are a legitimate title contender. Yet at the same time, they are not the favorites to win the Eastern Conference -- and that's because the Boston Celtics, currently in second palce, have proven themselves in the postseason fire. This Cavaliers team is yet to do so.
Their saving grace heading into the playoffs is that they will have homecourt advantage over the Celtics if both teams reach the Eastern Conference Finals. That has been true for nearly the entire season, and as recently as two weeks ago their odds of securing the No. 1 seed in the East were well north of 99 percent.
Then the Cavaliers stumbled, losing four-straight games and five of the last eight overall. Their only wins over that span were to locked-in lottery teams. And lurking behind them, the Celtics have won eight-straight games to climb to within four wins of first place.
Can the Cavaliers lose their spot atop the conference? It's unlikely...but it's now possible to imagine. Let's look at how such a disaster scenario could unfold.
How the Cavaliers could lose the No. 1 seed
There are eight games remaining in the NBA regular season for both the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Eight games for the Celtics to close the distance and swipe the top seed.
Over the span, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the entire NBA, per Tankathon. They have to play the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers twice each, as well as the LA Clippers this afternoon. They also play the surging Chicago Bulls and the desperate Sacramento Kings. Their only game against a tanking team is vs the San Antonio Spurs.
The Celtics, on the other hand, have the second-easiest schedule in the entire NBA. They do play the Knicks, a team they have shredded over the past couple of years, and the Memphis Grizzlies as that team reels in the wake of firing its head coach. They have games against the Washington Wizards, Miami Heat and two against the Charlotte Hornets, and a pair against the wobbling Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic.
The Cavaliers' "Magic Number" is five; a combination of Cleveland wins and Boston losses that equals at least five will secure the No. 1 seed. If they go 5-3 to close the season, they've clinched that top spot.
What if they continue to wobble, however? What if they go just 4-4, or even 3-5? That's not what you would expect from the team that has dominated opponents all season long, but the team that just went 3-5? Against a schedule that was just middle-of-the-pack? That team could certainly finish 3-5.
If they finish 3-5, and the Celtics go 7-1 against their easy schedule, then it happens. Boston clinches the top spot. The Cavaliers fall to No. 2. And suddenly their decent shot at taking down the defending champs in the Eastern Conference Finals is stamped down to a prayer. They have to somehow right their own ship, solve whatever problems they are facing, and all the while win their way against a more difficult slate of opponents just to end up at a disadvantage in the East Finals.
Is this outcome likely? No, it's not. The Cavaliers have a 98 percent chance at the No. 1 seed, per PlayoffStatus.com. They would need to stumble and have the Celtics excel. But that's exactly what just happened, so it's not that impossible to imagine. And given that both teams have a decent number of conference games left, such a stumble by Cleveland likely hands the tiebreaker to the Celtics, so they would need to finish a game clear.
It's a fascinating window to disaster that has been cracked open. The Cavaliers may have real issues to solve, or they may merely have taken their foot off the gas. If it's the latter, they need to accelerate. If they do not, they may end up sitting at home wondering what went wrong, and why they couldn't hold onto the No. 1 seed.