Defensive Player of the Year was supposed to be the easy one.
Victor Wembanyama was crowned the favorite before the season even began, then came out and justified that collective belief. He was a shot-blocking monster in the paint and the ultimate deterrent; opponents wanted nothing to do with challenging the 10-foot Frenchman in the middle.
Then Wembanyama was ruled out for the season, and suddenly the race opened up. Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Jaren Jackson Jr. were initially neck and neck to replace him, but over the course of the last two months a host of names have been tossed into the ring as candidates -- or, in the case of Golden State Warriors Bludger Draymond Green, tossed their own name into the ring.
Philosophically, a big man who can protect the rim has the largest impact on defense. If you are trying to connect Defensive Player of the Year with the player who had the largest impact on their team's defense, you have to vote for a big man.
Others approach this award with a modifier for position; how much is a big man better than other bigs, and how much is a perimeter defender better than other perimeter defenders. That's a fine approach, but it's not the approach I will take here.
Let's lay out my All-Defense Teams as a way to discuss the candidates, then reveal my Defensive Player of the Year ballot. Finally, I will predict who will win the award, which is often different than my own picks.
Will Draymond's late campaigning insert him into the running? Will Evan Mobley secure the award, and with it a significant pay increase? Will the statistical excellence of Dyson Daniels push him into the conversation?
Let's take a closer look.
All-Defense Second Team
Both the All-Defense Teams and the Defensive Player of the Year award are positionless. My selections are presented in no particular order.
Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder - Lu Dort is a rugged perimeter defender who takes on the toughest assignments for OKC. He is a part of a truly elite defense. Yet he is not more of a significant impact for that defense than Chet Holmgren (not eligible), Isaiah Hartenstein (not eligible), Alex Caruso (not eligible) or honestly Cason Wallace (not eligible) other than his volume of minutes. Dort defends his man; he's exceptionally good at it, but he is not earning an award merely as the proxy for all of his exceptional defensive teammates -- especially when he is the third or fourth-best defender on his team.
Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers may have wrongfully thought Deandre Ayton was worth trading for, but getting Toumani Camara thrown in has proven to be a masterstroke. The second-year forward is a strong and versatile defender who has punted Matisse Thybulle from the rotation and established himself as one of the better perimeter defenders in the league.
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets - A truly terrifying defender, Amen Thompson is putting it together in his second season. He will probably be a First Team All-Defense fixture moving forward. Yet he also makes a number of concentration errors -- being back-cut, for example -- that are common for young players. He has been exceptional down the stretch, but the whole season taken into account slots him into the Second Team.
Ivica Zubac, LA Clippers - A mountain of a man in the middle for the LA Clippers, Ivica Zubac has continued to improve year over year. He is nimble enough to shut down pick-and-rolls, and is immovable in the post. What's more, he defends without fouling, keeping him on the court for high minute totals despite his defense load and offensive role.
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves - No one wants to give Rudy Gobert credit for anything -- he is without question one of the most disliked players in the league by both media and his fellow players -- but he had another excellent defensive season manning the middle for the Timberwolves. Swapping Julius Randle in for Karl-Anthony Towns only made his job more difficult, but Gobert was great at the rim once again.
All-Defense First Team
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers - What a season for Evan Mobley, who is likely to make an All-NBA team. He blossomed as an offensive player without losing his defense impact, and his versatility to defend on the perimeter, as a weakside shot-blocker or as the primary rim protector unlocks the Cavaliers, as they can play all manner of teammates around him. He is often defending the back line with the likes of Darius Garland, Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill and Georges Niang (before he was traded) around him, and even so such lineups excel defensively.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors - There is no lifetime achievement award coming Draymond's way, nor is there extra credit because you have your own podcast. The reality is that Draymond Green -- Cavaliers fans, perhaps you need to cover your ears -- Draymond Green was the best defender of the last decade, and he still has all of the savvy and cunning and length he has always had. His motor is what was waned, and he has to pick his spots. The first half of the season he was mediocre; the second half he has been great, but it's not enough to elevate him higher than the final spot on the All-Defense First Team.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies - Jaren Jackson Jr. is an incredibly versatile defender, and he gives the Grizzlies real size on the front line to wall off the rim. He particularly excels rotating to the rim as the weakside help and swatting away shots, but he is also adept at generating steals and deflections. His achilles heel? Fouling. He does it foolishly and so often that he can't stay on the court, and it pushes him down the Defensive Player of the Year ballot because of it.
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks - There was a time when Dyson Daniels was going to be pushed down onto the All-Defense Second Team, but then I read this excellent piece by Stephen Noh and was forced to consider my own biases. What Dyson Daniels is accomplishing in terms of steals and deflections is truly special, especially in the modern NBA, where steal numbers are lower than they were in past eras. Daniels finished with 229 steals, the 18th-most all-time -- but everyone ahead of him played no later than 1996. In the last ten seasons, the most any other player had was 177; Daniels had 52 more steals than any other player had in the last decade! And he had 98 more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this year. It was truly a remarkable feat and, while we may not fully understand it, it deserves recognition.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder - If you want to point to the reason for the Oklahoma City Thunder's exceptional defense, you should point first of all to Jalen Williams. Although just 6'6" he is long and strong and able to do literally anything defensively on a basketball court. When the Thunder were without both of their centers he stepped in and started at the 5 -- and the Thunder kept on humming. He is freed up by Dort to take on secondary assignments but he executes them exceptionally well. His versatility and all-around impact place him on the First Team.
The Defensive Player of the Year goes to...
Draymond Green had a great close to the season but a shaky start. Jaren Jackson Jr. cannot stop fouling everyone in sight. Dyson Daniels is a perimeter defender and therefore just doesn't have the same impact as a rim protector. Jalen Williams can do it all, but he doesn't take on the toughest assignments and has such help from his teammates that it's difficult to parse out his particular impact.
Evan Mobley is the clear winner of this award. Some would point to the fact that he plays alongside another All-Defense candidate in Jarrett Allen (a strong candidate for a Third Team if we had one). Yet the Cavaliers have a better defense when Mobley plays without Allen, and as mentioned before he is often playing next to inferior defensive players. He can do it all, is doing it all, and for a 64-win team. His rim protection numbers are strong, his overall numbers are strong, and there is no perfect candidate to knock him off the pedestal.
No. 1: Evan Mobley
No. 2: Jalen Williams
No. 3: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?
There are a lot of voters seemingly wishing to pick anyone other than Evan Mobley for this award. The Cavaliers have wobbled down the stretch after dominating the conversation early in the year, so a multitude of media members are looking for a reason to pick someone else.
To pick Amen Thompson or Draymond Green, however, is to reveal you were swept up in the moment and didn't take the full season in view (and with Green that you probably don't pay close attention and just went with the narrative). To pick Lu Dort is to punt on this being an individual award and try to hand out a team success award to Dort as a proxy. To pick Dyson Daniels is fine, it just reveals you approach this award differently.
And in the end, everyone who wants to move off of Mobley will likely spread out to the various options, ensuring no one challenger overtakes him. It does seem like Evan Mobley will end up winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award.