If the Cleveland Cavaliers hope to reach the NBA Finals, they seem to be on a direct collision course with the reigning champion Boston Celtics.
Though the Cavs hold a 5.5-game lead over the C's in the Eastern Conference standings, Boston has a long track record of playoff dominance with this core. With two trips to the Finals and one victory over the Dallas Mavericks, the Celtics are nothing to laugh at. Last postseason, the Celtics ended the Cavaliers' season in a five-game series as Cleveland's squad fell apart to injury and a stagnant offense.
Although the Cavaliers only altered their coaching staff this offseason and retained their roster, they are better poised to overthrow the New England titans now than ever before. Coach Kenny Atkinson has unlocked the Cavaliers' offensive potential, boasting the top offensive rating with four uniquely talented stars comprising the core. After years with the Golden State Warriors staff, Atkinson brought a new perspective to effectively utilize a sharpshooting backcourt and towering frontcourt.
With the latest trade reports from ESPN insider Brian Windhorst suggesting the Cavaliers will stay quiet on the trade market ahead of the deadline, Cleveland will rely on their current cast to get revenge on Boston.
Further, the Cavs coach is proving why he has the reputation as a player development guru. Evan Mobley and Isaac Okoro are enjoying the best offensive seasons of their respective careers, Darius Garland is back to an All-Star-caliber guard and each role player is put in a position to succeed.
Comparing the Cavaliers and Celtics, both squads have bought into a cohesive roster, ignoring calls to break up a star duo or succumb to the expected compositions for a contender. Instead, their dynamic, full-throttle offenses suffocate defenses and push every rival to their limits.
How the Cavaliers can overcome the Celtics
Offensively, Cleveland and Boston have the same calling card. They are elite three-point shooting teams who swing the ball, make the extra pass and punish late rotations. Joe Mazzulla's Celtics lead the NBA in three-pointers made per game at 17.7 with the Cavaliers in second at 16.2 each night. Cleveland knocks down threes at the best rate in the league, connecting 39.5 percent of the time (Boston converts at 36.4 percent, 13th in the league).
The offensive fire power of each team makes the defensive strategy obvious - slow down the perimeter, win the game. Even more obvious than the goal is the difficulty of consistently achieving that goal over a seven-game series. The Cavs and C's are each top-10 in defensive rating thus far. Boston, though, has a much greater perimeter defense statistically, allowing opponents to make just 35.2 percent of their long-range heaves, meanwhile the Cavaliers allow a 37.5 percent rate.
For the Cavaliers to overthrow a growing dynasty, they cannot try to expose the Celtics' weaknesses. Instead, they must slow down their offense, force Boston into mid-range attempts (and accept the fact they'll make a lot of them), run their offense with confidence and purpose and - most importantly - win the matchup game. Under Atkinson, depth has been Cleveland's claim to fame. A talented bench and team-first mentality gives the Cavaliers the edge against any opponent when played right.
Thus, the Cavaliers must construct the perfect rotation to counteract Boston's strengths with their own.
The starting five
Unsurprisingly, Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Mobley and Jarrett Allen comprise 4 of the 5 Cavaliers starters. The seemingly ever-changing starting small forward is awarded to defensive juggernaut Isaac Okoro. While Okoro does not provide size to overpower Boston's top forwards Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the former fifth-overall pick uses his strength, endurance and natural defensive talent to bother star players of any kind.
Throughout this season, Okoro and Dean Wade have been the two most common starters, often defined by who is healthy and who is not. For the most part, Wade has assumed the starting role when both are available, but Okoro likely fits the needs in the starting five against the Celtics a bit more than Wade.
Tatum, a perennial All-NBA talent, will always cause problems for any defender. Mobley, though, has the size, speed, shot-blocking and versatility to bother him. When guarded by Mobley in last year's postseason campaign, Tatum could still find ways to the hoop, but the Cavs star big man never let him get something easily.
In short, Okoro gives Cleveland the ability to glue Mobley to Tatum. The Cavaliers can trust Okoro on Brown, battling Tatum's counterpart every second for an advantage. Okoro is not just a strong defender, but a smart one. He seems to instinctually know every assignment's biggest flaw and could force Brown into driving with his off-hand into heavy traffic, funneling him into Allen or keeping a hand in his face on the perimeter.
Allen would have the Kristaps Porzingis job. While not very easy, it might be the easiest one for the Cavaliers. KP is a multi-talented center, but Allen rarely struggles against Porzingis' archetype. Cleveland's star center can stretch his defense to the perimeter and handle himself in the post. Where he falters is versus overly-physical centers, but Porzingis does not pose that problem.
In the backcourt, Cleveland needs to rely on Mitchell's and Garland's improved defensive effort from this season. Neither Boston guard is necessarily an elite scorer, but they have a quick trigger on the arc and can make the right pass without hesitation.
After the starting unit, the Cavaliers need to make the right initial swaps.
The first bench squad
In: Caris LeVert, Dean Wade, Ty Jerome
Out: Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro
With Mitchell, Jerome, LeVert, Wade and Mobley, the Cavaliers maintain their size and playmaking prowess. Jerome and Vert increase the size in the backcourt and on the wing, as well as overpowering the Celtics with three dynamic scoring playmakers on offense.
Wade and Mobley present the Celtics with a frontcourt that can do nearly just as much as the starting duo. Wade is an impressive perimeter sharpshooter and can pressure Tatum in many of the same ways as Mobley. Assuming Tatum and Brown stick around in the first rotation for the Celtics, then this five can counter anything thrown their way. If Al Horford checks in for KP, Mobley has a clear skill advantage. Horford is no slouch, but Mobley's quickness can get the better of the veteran big.
In the playoffs, the Cavaliers will undoubtedly shorten their rotation significantly, but if Atkinson makes one more real rotation shift, he can keep his squad rested down the stretch as the shallow Celtics depth chart wears out.
Cleveland's third string
In: Garland, Allen, Max Strus, Okoro
Out: Mitchell, Mobley, LeVert, Wade
Jerome is the only Cavalier to stay on the court in this composition, alleviating Garland's size disadvantage. In this lineup, the Cavs bring in a ninth man Max Strus for volume shooting and endless hustle. After serving in a starting role last year, Strus has willingly taken a bench role. His preexisting chemistry and veteran experience are major lifts for the Cavaliers.
While Strus' reputation as an elite shooter is subject to question with a second season below average from deep, the former Miami Heat wing is fearless on the arc, a true motion shooter. Whether he is coming off an off-ball screen or catching a last-second pass to the corner, Strus never second guesses his three-point stroke.
This year, Garland has been the Cavaliers' best player in the clutch and serves as both the number-one scoring option and offensive maestro in this unit. Jerome is a spark plug and secondary ball handler with Okoro as a small-ball power forward next to Allen in the frontcourt. While the Cavaliers could lean into Georges Niang for size in the post, Okoro has better speed and athleticism to keep up with the Celtics. Against Boston last time, Niang could look nearly unplayable as Tatum and Brown would target him on switches.
Truthfully, each of these lineups is only a hypothetical scenario. Despite a lack of true depth across the board, each of Boston's players are well-versed in their expertise and can swing a game on their own if left unattended. Payton Pritchard alone can be a hope killer, but the Cavaliers cannot avoid this frustrating dilemma the Celtics create.
Ultimately, the Atkinsons' gameplan for the Cleveland Cavaliers playoff rematch with Boston will alter from game to game. Unless the Cavaliers make a move ahead of the trade buzzer, their best chance to defeat their conference foe is with a shortened rotation designed to exploit the Celtics from the tip-off to the 48th minute.