The Cleveland Cavaliers are the perfect test case for Coach of the Year.
One of the NBA's annual awards, Coach of the Year "recognizes the top head coach in the NBA for their contributions to their team's success." As with many of the league's awards, that definition is broad enough that voters can take different paths to arriving at their choice.
Some vote for the person they believe is the best head coach overall, not overly weighing this season. Such a person might vote for Erik Spoelstra, for example, even if the Miami Heat are having a down season. Another approach is to vote for the coach of the best team, arguing that the best team has the best coach. That would present Mark Daigneault as the man to vote for as his Oklahoma City Thunder have essentially locked up the No. 1 overall seed.
Others vote for the team that was supposed to be bad but is unexpectedly good, ascribing the value of the surprise leap to the head coach. Similarly, you can vote for a team that was supposed to be good but is excellent, believing that it's harder to make a good team great than to make a bad team good.
Those last two categories will likely define the Coach of the Year race this season. Will voters prioritize the top-end dominance of the Cavaliers and vote for Kenny Atkinson? Will they ride the shock value of the Detroit Pistons tripling their win total from last season and vote for J.B. Bickerstaff? Is there a middle ground between the two?
Let's discuss what candidates are in the running, who I believe should win the award, and then who I believe will win the Coach of the Year award.
Coach of the Year Candidates
As mentioned above, the frontrunners for the award are Kenny Atkinson of the Cleveland Cavaliers and J.B. Bickerstaff of the Detroit Pistons. They have been the betting favorites for most of the past few months.
Mark Daigneault and Joe Mazzula need to be mentioned as well for the excellence of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics, respectively. The Thunder have an all-time defense and the best record in the league, while the Celtics have weathered consistent injuries and still are in great position to defend their title.
Ime Udoka has the Houston Rockets as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and has made a roster of one-way talents gel together in an incredible way. JJ Redick has the Los Angeles Lakers in position to secure the No. 3 seed in the West and has had to oversee a complete makeover of his team in-season with the arrival of Luka Doncic and departure of Anthony Davis.
Rick Carlisle has led the Indiana Pacers to a 47-31 record and likely homecourt advantage in the playoffs. Chauncey Billups came back from the dead and the Portland Trail Blazers made a late surge up the standings. Jordi Fernandez almost single-handedly blew up the Brooklyn Nets' tank job by being too good of a coach. Ty Lue took a team with low expectations and has them solidly in the West playoff race. Erik Spoelstra remains an elite coach.
Who should win Coach of the Year?
Here is my final ballot:
No. 3: Mark Daigneault - With apologies to Ime Udoka, and a nod to Jordi Fernandez, this year's Thunder team is right there with elite teams of the past 30 seasons. Daigneault has crafted an elite offense around just one elite offensive player, and while he has a lot of incredible defenders to work with, he has overseen the best defense the modern NBA has ever seen.
No. 2: J.B. Bickerstaff - What Bickerstaff has done with the Detroit Pistons is nothing short of extraordinary. Players across the roster have taken a leap, the team overall went from the dregs to a Top-6 playoff spot, and while they added a handful of veteran shooters and a raw Top-5 pick, it's easy to see how Bickerstaff is the most prominent variable to their improvement.
In the end, however, it really is more difficult to make a good team great, and that's why my nonexistent vote goes not to Cleveland's previous head coach, but their current one.
No. 1: Kenny Atkinson - The Cleveland Cavaliers won 48 games last season and kept essentially the same exact roster together this season. Seriously: the top twelve players in minutes played last season all returned this year! And yet Atkinson came in as a new head coach and made a good team amazing. This team started 15-0 and three separate double-digit win streaks. With four games to go they still have a shot to match the franchise record for wins in a season with 66, and they are one win away from securing the No. 1 seed in the East.
The Cavaliers are a legitimate title contender, and the difference is Atkinson. He empowered Evan Mobley to have a breakout season, oversaw Darius Garland returning to form, believed in Ty Jerome to plug him straight into the rotation for his career-saving year and has the Cavs as the top shooting offense in the league despite starting two traditional bigs. It's an amazing accomplishment and it should earn him Coach of the Year.
Who will win Coach of the Year?
The media is - rightfully - enamored with the rise of J.B. Bickerstaff and the Detroit Pistons, and some will want to give Daigneault and Udoka their flowers. None of those men would be terrible selections.
In the end, however, assuming the Cavaliers finish with the best record in the East, it appears that Kenny Atkinson will indeed win the NBA Coach of the Year award. And it will be well-deserved.