Are the Cleveland Cavaliers paving the way to trade Jarrett Allen?

Jarrett Allen could be on his way out in Cleveland.

That seems like an impossible statement given the success that the Cleveland Cavaliers have had this season, starting 15-0 before losing by three to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night (and rebounding with a blowout win the next night). The Cavs have been the best team in the league thus far; why would the front office break up something that is working so well?

What's more, Allen has been a pillar of the franchise for the last five seasons, when he arrived in Cleveland as a part of the trade that sent James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets. Harden has changed teams two more times since then, while Allen has racked up 269 games for the Cavs.

Allen ranks eighth in the entire NBA in total rebounds since joining the Cavaliers in 2020-21, and he has been something of a double-double machine over the past few seasons. He was an All-Star in 2021-22 and just missed out on an All-Defense nod last season. He has been a reliable two-way force for Cleveland throughout their rise from lottery team to East contender.

At the same time, however, he has been a frequent name in trade rumors for multiple seasons. The inability of Evan Mobley to develop a consistent perimeter shot has meant that two of the team's best players have been non-shooting bigs best deployed at center. In the modern NBA, it's difficult to field a successful offense with two non-shooters on the court.

Many expected the Cavaliers to trade Allen this summer, but instead the team elected to hire an offensive-minded coach in Kenny Atkinson and try to make things work one last time with this "Big 4" of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. At the same time, however, the Cavs agreed to a new contract extension with Allen -- and timed it so that he remains trade eligible this season.

Even with Atkinson molding the offense into the league's best unit, and the team reeling off wins to start the year, there are signs that the team may be preparing to move on from Jarrett Allen. Despite the strong start, the possibility that the Cavaliers trade Jarrett Allen is still quite high.

Why the Cavaliers could trade Jarrett Allen

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a strong team with their four starters on the court. Lineups with those four players have played 187 minutes together this season, with a net rating of only +2.6. That number was higher before the Boston Celtics shredded their starting group on Tuesday night with Sam Merrill forced into action at the 3; that number rises to +6.2 in any combination without Merrill.

Even so, +6.2 is merely a good, not great, number for a four-man lineup on a contending team. The real secret to Cleveland's success has been their split lineups, which they go to increasingly often after starting the game with the double bigs. Often Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley play together surrounded by three perimeter players, and Darius Garland pairs with Jarrett Allen.

When Jarrett Allen is on the court without Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers have a +5.2 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. That number rises to a whopping +21.3 net rating when Mobley is on the court without Allen, in the 99th percentile in the league. When the Cavaliers made their big comeback against the Celtics in the third quarter on Tuesday night, it was Mobley at center, Allen on the bench.

What's more, head coach Kenny Atkinson understands this reality so well that he is not closing game with Allen on the court, instead electing to place more shooting around Mobley at center. He took this to the extreme on Tuesday; even with Dean Wade sidelined due to an ankle injury, Atkinson closed the game with the defensively-challenged Georges Niang at the 4 rather than play the two centers together down the stretch.

Atkinson is even experimenting with lineups where Wade plays center in order to spell Evan Mobley, further limiting Jarrett Allen's minutes. As Mobley grows into hub and one of the league's best defenders, his two-way play is more valuable to the Cavaliers than Allen. That isn't to say that Jarrett Allen is not a Top-15 center in the league, and potentially even Top 10. It just means that Mobley is better, and that they are both centers. In the modern NBA, playing two centers is just nigh impossible.

The Cavaliers are riding high and winning a lot of games, so there is not a lot of urgency to shake things up. At some point, however, things won't be going so well, and the Cavs will certainly consider a deal. Moving Jarrett Allen for a two-way combo forward, even if he is less talented, may better fit Atkinson's vision for the team. And it's hard to argue with the numbers: the Cavaliers are at their best with one center on the court.

That may mean Jarrett Allen finds himself in a trade and heading out of Cleveland.