After a bulk of injuries and trades this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are settling into the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference with eight games left in the regular season.
Holding a 46-28 record, the Cavs are two games beyond the three-seeded New York Knicks. Rather than looking towards potentially moving up in the standings, Cleveland is assessing their likely first-round rivals. Just below the Cavaliers, spots five through nine are just one game apart from each other.
Locked in a heated battle to avoid the Play-In Tournament and earn a guaranteed Playoff berth, the Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic are grinding out the final stretch of the year. The Raptors have held the fifth seed for a majority of the late season, but the surging Hornets have gone from a lottery-bound franchise to a legitimate threat to dethrone their Canadian counterparts.
With the NBA version of the Hunger Games ongoing, the Cavaliers are simply waiting to see who will emerge on top, just in time to be on the road for the first round. Cleveland will surely have the upper hand and enter the series a favorite against any of the listed teams, but certain matchups would give the Cavs just enough of a struggle to make it a fight.
The Sixers have MVP candidate Tyrese Maxey and a semi-healthy Joel Embiid. If Philly is at the top of their game, the Cavaliers would face a real threat and likely a long, drawn-out series. The Raptors have enough athleticism and defense to bother the Cavs, just like the Magic.
While the Raptors and Magic have defense on their side, the unstoppable shooting and pace of the Hornets would probalby give the Cavs a jolt of anxiety. Potential Rookie of the Year Kon Knueppel is already one of the best shooters in the NBA, and the trio of Kon, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller have some of the best offensive numbers the league has seen.
If the Cavaliers want their most favorable first-round opponent, players and fans should hope to see more wins in favor of the Atlanta Hawks than any other potential rival.
Cleveland's perfect first round is against the Hawks
While the aforementioned teams all have All-NBA star talent or specializations on one side of the court, the Hawks are an odd middleground in the post-Trae Young era. Atlanta's best player, Jalen Johnson, is an emerging All-Star but does not have the gravitas of Embiid or Maxey.
Over the last 12 games, the Hawks have a top-10 offense and a top-five defense, but they have consistently hovered around the middleground over the entire year. They employ no standout defenders with Dyson Daniels' defensive impact shrinking considerably this season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a perimeter defensive nightmare, but the Cavs' backcourt of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell would have an easy time working through it.
The latest addition to Atlanta, Jonathan Kuminga, could give the Hawks momentum as a big forward with a lot of upside. Still, he has yet to show consistent defensive prowess, giving the Cavs enough room to exploit Atlanta's flaws without too many repercussions.
If the Cavaliers are fortunate enough to face Atlanta in Round One, Cleveland's froncourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen would have the perfect chance to set a physical tone, playing from the inside out. Setting their dominance in the paint early would quickly open chances on the perimeter, dishing the ball out to an open Harden or Max Strus.
The Hawks rank in the bottom half of the league for points in the paint allowed (per TeamRankings), suggesting their biggest weakness is the perfect one for the Cavaliers to exploit. With Allen's surging impact late this season, it is easy to see how Cleveland would feel confident entering a Playoffs series against Atlanta.
Once the postseason arrives, the Cleveland Cavaliers cannot afford to ignore any single opponent. Over seven games, Cleveland is more than capable of falling short and making a series harder than it should be. The Hawks offer the most favorable chance for the Cavs to emerge unscathed and ready for a long postseason run.