Charles Barkley's Cavaliers prediction comes full circle on NBA on TNT

The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the verge of making Charles Barkley look like a prophet.

Prior to the Cavs' Thursday night (ultra-shorthanded) loss to the Indiana Pacers, the NBA on TNT crew revisited some of their predictions for this season. The exercise served as a good reminder that Barkley was incredibly high on Cleveland before it was cool to be incredibly high on Cleveland:

For those who cannot read that sticky note on their screen of choice, it says: "Cavs will win the East." And as Ernie Johnson held it up to the camera, Barkley reiterated his faith in Cleveland. "I am not gonna change it, brother," he said.

And, well, why would he?

The job's not done, but the Cavs are in great shape

Cleveland has already clinched the best record in the Eastern Conference, outstripping even the reigning champion Boston Celtics. That is not tantamount to winning the East. Barkley's prediction stipulates that the Cavs will make the 2025 NBA Finals. They have a long way to go—12 playoff victories, to be exact—before actualizing ol' Chuck's declaration.

This is nevertheless a full-circle moment. And it is kind of surreal to reflect upon.

Even those highest on Cleveland would have considered Barkley's prediction bold at the time. The Celtics exist. They are working off a 16-3 run to the 2024 NBA title. Their emergence from the East was—and for many, remains—the default.

If nothing else, though, the Cavs have given anyone and everyone enough reasons to reconsider the favorite in the East. Granted, their performance in recent weeks, since around the middle of March, has been touch-and-go. Both the defense and three-point shooting have slipped outside the top 15 over the last 15 games, according to Cleaning the Glass. This could be cause for some concern.

Except it isn't.

Sustaining surface-of-the-sun levels of intensity for 82 games is impossible. The Cavs have visibly prioritized self-preservation during their closing kick. That is smart. They have nothing to prove. The "Let's see them do it in the playoffs!" purists have some semblance of a leg on which to stand, but you don't spit out the league's best offense, a top-eight defense and 60-plus victories over the course of an entire season by accident.

Should Cleveland be favored to win the Eastern Conference Finals?

Taking stock of the Cavs' viability is more about deciding whether they should be favored over Boston (and everyone else) to represent the East in the NBA Finals. Once more, with feeling: It is tough to place anyone above the Celtics, even as they grapple with an injury to and shooting regression from Jaylen Brown, the aging up of Jrue Holiday and general concern over Kristaps Porzingis' availability.

Cleveland has a case to edge them out in this arena anyway.

Going 2-2 against Boston this year isn't necessarily telltale, but it sure beats losing the season series 3-1 or getting swept 4-0. (Sup, New York Knicks?). The Cavs are also one of just three teams to post a positive net rating against the Celtics this season, joining the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder, both of whom only had to face them twice as opposed to four times.

Cleveland's overall performance against the league's elites bodes even better for its chances. Oklahoma City is the only team with a better record against opponents notching top-10 point differentials.

Some of these matchups have admittedly featured shaky defensive moments. People are up in arms over rival offenses going after Evan Mobley, and the Cavs can relinquish too many threes. These warts should not be dismissed. At the same time, any targeting of Mobley seems less about his individual weaknesses and more about attempting to diminish his defensive impact by restricting his focus to a singular responsibility. And while pressure from long-range can be an issue, Cleveland ranks seventh in points allowed per possession against top-10 offenses anyway.

This all says nothing of the individual improvement being enjoyed by so many members of the Cavailiers.

Mobley is so much better at finishing through contact and just generally creating for himself and others. He's also nearly tripled his three-point-attempts per game. The sacrifices made by Donovan Mitchell are well-documented. And yet, they still feel underappreciated. Relative to his first two seasons in Cleveland, he has noticeably increased his time spent away from the ball and lowered his number of touches per 75 possessions, per BBall Index. Getting this kind of superstar buy-in cannot be overstated.

Darius Garland has turned in a banner campaign. It turns out being healthy and not getting clocked in the face every third game matters. Who knew? Jarrett Allen deserves an honorable mention in All-Defense discussions. Attempting to screen Isaac Okoro remains an exercise in futility. Ty Jerome has not missed a floater since he played for the Golden State Warriors.

The offense overall looks more dynamic under head coach Kenny Atkinson. The Cavs' depth, meanwhile, is revelatory. It isn't the type of regular-season innings-eating depth deployed by so many other squads. It is functional depth, the type of optionality that will translate to the postseason, allowing Cleveland to shape-shift, toggling between one- and two-big combos, one- and two-guard arrangements and a buffet of different looks on the wing.

This isn't enough to declare the Cavs locks to win the East. But it's enough for them to make the Celtics uncomfortable—and for Charles Barkley to look like a crystal ball-gazing genius.

Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.