Cavaliers will have multiple All-Stars: Projecting who makes it, and who doesn't

The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a blistering start this season, 17-1 with the league's best offense. They are scoring 123.4 points per game, three full points clear of second-place Memphis, and are shooting a scorching-hot 41.5 percent from deep.

All of those points not only mean team success, but individual statistics as well. Players up and down the roster are putting up career numbers and displaying a whole new level of performance. Could that mean a whole new level of recognition when All-Star voting comes around?

The last time a team started this hot, the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors had three All-Stars: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Can the Cavaliers match that total? Exceed it? Or is the league's parity and the Cavaliers' relative newness to the top tier likely to hold down their number of All-Stars?

Let's look at the odds that the Cavaliers end up with every number of feasible All-Stars, from one to four; it's a lock at this point barring catastrophic injury that they will have at least one, and despite Ty Jerome's best efforts there is no chance they would have five.

The other possibilities? Anything is on the table.

Odds of 2 All-Stars: 45 percent

The most likely outcome is that the Cavaliers have two All-Stars. Even great teams in recent years have tended to have two, not three, All-Star selections. Last year's Boston Celtics had just two, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Milwaukee Bucks routinely had two despite dominant regular seasons. It's not a given that the best team in the league gets three All-Stars.

If there are only two All-Stars, it's most likely the two backcourt players who get the recognition. Donovan Mitchell is an established star likely to be voted in as an All-Star starter, averaging 24.4 points and a career-best in shooting, all while playing fewer minutes for the league's best team.

Darius Garland, on the other hand, is having a bounceback year and putting up exciting numbers. He is averaging 20.3 points per game and a nuclear 43.9 percent shooting from deep on 6.7 attempts per game. Add in 6.9 assists and 1.2 steals and you have the profile of an All-Star, especially given the team context.

Odds Cavaliers have 3 All-Stars: 40 percent

The other most likely outcome is that the Cleveland Cavaliers burst onto the scene with a trio of All-Stars. Evan Mobley would join the group in that scenario, a defensive juggernaut with an expanded offensive portfolio this season. He is averaging career-highs in scoring and true-shooting while increasing his usage percentage dramatically. New coach Kenny Atkinson has him working as an offensive hub and it's working extremely well for the Cavaliers.

On average, a team has at least three All-Stars every two or three seasons. The Brooklyn Nets got there with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden. The dynasty Warriors frequently had three, some combination of Curry, Durant, Draymond and Klay. In 2021 the Utah Jazz sent three, including Donovan Mitchell. It's not guaranteed, but it's fairly common.

Odds Cavaliers have 1 All-Star: 10 percent

It is possible for elite teams to have just one All-Star, but that generally happens when said player is a heliocentric superstar surrounded by supporting players; James Harden on the Houston Rockets a couple of times, for example. In most cases, however, the best team in the league is almost a lock to have multiple All-Stars.

That's all the more likely for the Cavaliers, who play a more balanced approach on offense with no one player hogging the rock or the points. That has allowed multiple players to thrive for Cleveland and has been a major part of their team success. If Garland were to get injured, Evan Mobley falter a bit and the Cavaliers to go on a losing streak, there is a world where only one makes it, but the vast majority of outcomes include two or more All-Stars for Cleveland.

Odds Cavaliers have 4 All-Stars: 5 percent

Could the Cleveland Cavaliers actually have four All-Stars? It's certainly possible; the Cavaliers are an exceptional team, they are putting up big numbers, and they have a clear top-4 collection of stars. The Warriors sent four players one time during the Kevin Durant era. The Atlanta Hawks won 60 games one year and 4/5 of the starting lineup were voted All-Stars. It does happen.

That being said, it's overall unlikely, and especially this year with this group. Jarrett Allen is not putting up mind-numbing numbers and doesn't have much opportunity for signature moments. He has been a dominant player, averaging 14.8 points and 11.1 rebounds to go with excellent defense. Those aren't eye-popping numbers, however, and the Cavs are analytically better with Mobley on the court in place of Allen.

That's not particularly fair to him, but that's the reality, and it will likely hold him out of the All-Star Game when voting rolls around. Still, there is a chance the Cavs continue to rack up wins and they become undeniable.

All-Star voting is still weeks away, and the game itself -- with a new, revamped format in San Francisco -- not until February. The Cavaliers could have two or three All-Stars, will probably not have one or four, and will certainly not have 0 or 5. How many they have may remain a mystery until the teams are announced, but they have a shot at filling up the roster.