The Cleveland Cavaliers have pushed their chips to the center of the table. Donovan Mitchell is locked in, James Harden is back, and championship expectations are higher than ever. But the elephant in the room remains.
What happens if Harden decides he's ready for another change of scenery?
It's not a prediction, and there's no indication Harden currently wants out. Still, his history makes it a possibility worth considering, especially for a franchise that's invested so heavily in winning now. We have to be mindful that it's an investment, and not a reality, though.
Cleveland's championship window comes with a hefty price tag
The Cavaliers didn't trade Darius Garland for Harden just to make another respectable playoff run. And while calling Cleveland the loser of the Harden-Garland trade makes little sense, the organization still sacrificed a younger All-Star for a veteran it believes can help deliver a championship.
That decision carries considerably more weight after Cleveland's four-game Eastern Conference Finals sweep at the hands of the New York Knicks.
Mitchell subsequently signed a four-year, $273 million extension, while Harden returned on a three-year deal worth approximately $97 million, including a player option for 2028-29.
Those contracts represent roughly $370 million in stated value, although they cover different periods and don't constitute one simultaneous financial commitment. That's a serious investment in a partnership Cleveland needs to work sooner rather than later.
Harden will be 37 when the season begins. Mitchell is firmly in his prime. Their timelines aren't identical, and Cleveland doesn't have unlimited opportunities to figure things out. We're beating a dead horse here, but some folks were worried when Harden didn't suit up for the preseason game because of ankle soreness.
Should we overreact to a preseason game? No, not necessarily. There's no possible way to know whether Harden is mentally checked out, waiting for a chance to leave, or just going to stand by his previous statements that if organizations can trade players, players can trade organizations, too. Only time will tell, but Harden is surely looking to scratch that itch and hoist the trophy before he retires.
James Harden's history makes the stakes even higher
Harden's résumé speaks for itself, there's no denying that. Unfortunately for Cleveland, so does his transaction history.
People said it was warranted when he left Houston because their championship aspirations had faded. A lack of chemistry due to barely playing together, questions surrounding Kevin Durant's leadership, and a little Kyrie drama sprinkled in were enough to make Harden pack his bags and head to Philly.
With the 76ers, a contract dispute and a deteriorating relationship with management led to yet another trade request, this time to the Clippers. And for reasons unknown to us all, Harden wanted to leave the Clippers as well, though it seemed to be less contentious and more of a mutual agreement at that time.
Each situation had its own circumstances, and reducing them all to Harden abandoning struggling teams wouldn't be fair.
But the pattern is difficult to ignore. All those organizations had one thing in common: losing. So, the question is: if the Cavs don't win it all this year, will we see James Harden next year?
Perhaps. But the Cavaliers also have some hope that they haven't fumbled the bag, so to speak. Harden chose to return after last season's disappointment.
Another playoff failure could force uncomfortable decisions
Suppose Cleveland suffers another early postseason exit. Mitchell remains committed financially, but Harden's age and championship aspirations could make the organization's next move considerably more complicated.
A trade request wouldn't automatically free Cleveland from its financial obligations. Nor could the Cavaliers simply replace Harden with another elite playmaker.
They'd have to navigate his contract, find a suitable trade partner, and determine whether the return could keep Mitchell's championship window open.
That's what makes this gamble particularly fascinating. Cleveland traded away a younger building block to accelerate its championship pursuit. Reversing course wouldn't be nearly as simple.
Of course, there's a much happier possibility. Harden and Mitchell develop stronger chemistry, the Cavaliers finally break through, and this entire conversation becomes irrelevant.
Cleveland fans would gladly take that outcome.
But if another postseason ends in disappointment, the biggest question might not be what the Cavaliers need to change. It might be whether Harden still wants to be part of the answer.
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