Every star player who has entered the NBA almost played for a different team.
Some of these potential futures are well known. The Portland Trail Blazers drafted Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan at No. 2 because they already had a star guard (Clyde Drexler wasn't all that bad himself, but obviously he was no Jordan). The Three teams had a chance to draft Luka Doncic but talked themselves into Deandre Ayton (hometown kid), Marvin Bagley (we're the Kings so we can't be good) and Trae Young (Trae plus a first is better than Luka).
Even teams that take a generational superstar with the first pick needed the luck of the lottery balls to fall their way to land the first pick. The San Antonio Spurs were likely an inch away from the NBA drawing out a ping pong ball for the Detroit Pistons or Charlotte Hornets for that first overall pick. Playoff series are often decided by an inch (Kevin Durant's toe, or Ray Allen's 3-point shot) and lottery draws are too. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo of The Ringer recently discussed some of these recent "sliding doors" moments.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are built on the back of just such a near-miss moment. They are in first place in the Eastern Conference and a legitimate contender for a championship this season with a roster built half through the draft and half through trades. While Donovan Mitchell's brilliance and Darius Garland's bounceback season and Jarrett Allen's steadiness are all key factors, the biggest reason the Cavaliers went from good to great is the growth of Evan Mobley.
Mobley has been an excellent defensive player since he entered the league and is a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year this season. Where he has grown significantly this season is as an offensive player, improving as a playmaker, a shooter and as a finisher in traffic. He is on track to make an All-NBA team and it's not entirely unreasonable to say he is the best overall player on the team this year.
And Mobley very nearly was not a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Houston Rockets almost drafted Evan Mobley
In the weeks leading up to the 2021 NBA Draft, three names were discussed by draft analysts and Houston Rockets reporters for the talent-strapped Rockets: Jalen Green of the G League Ignite, Evan Mobley from the USC Trojans, and Jalen Suggs from the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Green was believed to be a slight frontrunner over the final couple of weeks, but Mobley and Suggs were very much in play. As of a month out from the draft, the Rockets had not "made any decision" on who to draft. Top-tier draft analysts like Jeremy Woo were projecting Mobley to the Rockets at this time in the draft cycle four years ago.
That came together in the final weeks as Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs withheld private workouts from the Rockets in an attempt to steer themselves to different teams. That meant the Rockets even further locked into Jalen Green, and the rest is history.
If things had turned out differently, if the Rockets had taken Mobley, what does that mean for the Cavaliers? They were rumored to be discussing a trade involving Collin Sexton, perhaps to land a second Top-10 pick. Would they have pulled the trigger if the best players left on the board were guards? Or do they pass on Green and Suggs because they already had Sexton and Darius Garland and instead reach further down the board for Scottie Barnes or Jonathan Kuminga?
Whatever happens, it's almost certain that the Cavaliers are not as good during Mobley's rookie season with Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs around. Perhaps Scottie Barnes could have had a similar impact -- he did win Rookie of the Year narrowly over Mobley -- but something was special about Mobley's defense right out of the gates as a rookie.
Most likely the Cavaliers move on from Sexton in a trade and try to build around a backcourt of Jalen Green and Darius Garland. Such a pairing would have been disastrous defensively and the Cavs would have been much worse. Instead of nearly making the playoffs and then trading for Donovan Mitchell, perhaps the Cavaliers finish in 11th in the East instead of 9th. Instead of taking Ochai Agbaji at 14th they take Jeremy Sochan or Ousmane Dieng -- another slow-to-develop project player.
The Cavaliers would almost certainly not be in contention, and the what ifs spiral out from there. Darius Garland asking out because he doesn't want to share the ball with Jalen Green. The team taking a different kind of swing on a veteran -- perhaps they are bringing in Jimmy Butler to shape up a less disciplined and less successful squad.
The team would look very different and almost certainly be worse. Drafting Evan Mobley was the turning point for this franchise, and it almost didn't happen.