In the playoffs, you want to have stars.
That doesn't mean that coaching and depth and system and experience don't play a factor; they absolutely do. But the most important thing to winning at the highest levels is to have the best stars, and ideally to have more than one.
That's why LeBron James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to four-straight NBA Finals when he returned to The Land -- no one in the Eastern Conference could match his star power, not with their depth and system (Atlanta and Toronto come to mind during that period) nor with their elite defense (Indiana). He was essentially unstoppable until he reached a team that had a star on his level in Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors.
That's why the Cavaliers are that much more formidable this season -- they have legitimate star power. Donovan Mitchell is a fringe Top-10 player. Evan Mobley has now level up to join him in that same range. Darius Garland has bounced back into Top-30 status. And Jarrett Allen is a legitimate two-way center. That's a lot of star power and in many series they will have the best -- or even two best -- players.
Looking at how the bracket has unfolded for the Cavaliers to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, they should face a "star" but not a top-20 player in the first round of the playoffs. In the second round, they will play the winner of the 4-5 matchup between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks.
In terms of star power, only two or three teams in the entire NBA can boast a better one than the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo appears headed for another Top-4 MVP finish, and the two-time winner of that award also has a Finals MVP after leading Milwaukee to the 2021 NBA title.
He also has a formidable wingman in Damian Lillard, a high-octane guard with limitless range and his own list of playoff victories and all-time shots. Together, the Bucks are a team that can legitimately match -- and even succeed -- the star power of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Thankfully, it looks increasingly likely they will not have to play them.
Damian Lillard remains out for the Bucks
Damian Lillard stopped playing basketball games a month ago, and it was announced that he was dealing with a blood clot in his calf. That is a scary thing for an NBA player to deal with, both because clots can be fatal and also because the blood thinners they go on to address the issue make it dangerous to play contact sports.
For most players, the recovery period is measured in months; Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for a similar issue in February and his status to start next season is in question. Lillard, ruled out on March 18th, is trying to make a return as soon as possible. The location of the clot, in his lower leg, reportedly makes it possible that he could return this season.
News has now broken, however, that his return is not imminent:
Milwaukee Bucks star Damian Lillard (blood clot) will miss the start of the NBA playoffs, sources tell ESPN. Bucks play Game 1 of the first round against the Pacers on Saturday. Lillard has been sidelined since March 18, and doctors continue to monitor progress for clearance. pic.twitter.com/W8CqbSt3G1
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 15, 2025
The Bucks therefore head into their first round series with the Indiana Pacers without their second-best player. Journeyman second-round pick Ryan Rollins will therefore start at point guard for the Bucks. They have to go on the road to start their series at a significant talent disadvantage to the Pacers.
That makes is much more likely that the Pacers will take down Milwaukee for the second-straight year; last season because Giannis Antetokounmpo was sidelined, and this year because of Lillard.
It's possible that Antetokounmpo is so brilliant that he leads the Bucks in an upset, but the odds are long. More likely, the Pacers will cruise to a victory - but then run into the buzzsaw that is the Cavaliers.
The Pacers have a star of their own in Tyrese Haliburton, but he is a tier down from Mitchell and Mobley in overall impact. Go down the roster and the Pacers, while good and talented, are a step below the Cavaliers at every level. They cannot match the star power of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Surprising things can and do happen in the NBA Playoffs. For now, the most likely outcome is that the short-handed Bucks go down in Round 1, and it opens up the path for the Cavaliers to overwhelm the Pacers and reach the true star power showdown against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.