This will come as a shock to those who look at the Cleveland Cavaliers gaudy record, and at Donovan Mitchell's name popping up on MVP ballots, and think that the star shooting guard has had an all-time season. Yet this is the reality: Mitchell has not been at his best this season.
His 3-point shooting has been right in line with his career marks in terms of volume and accuracy, but he has been much less efficient from 2-point range than in his first two seasons in Cleveland. He is also drawing his fewest number of fouls. And while it's been a fine narrative that Mitchell's numbers are down because he is taking a smaller role in the Cavaliers' offense to let Darius Garland and Evan Mobley shine, the reality is that his usage percentage is essentially right in line with last season's.
The likely culprit for Mitchell's lack of explosion inside the arc and specifically at the rim is injury. He seemed to be less than 100 percent even to start the season, and a groin injury has continued to pop up. As Cleveland came down the stretch of the season, one of their top goals needed to be giving Mitchell the rest he needed to get physically right.
Donovan Mitchell is hurt
While they may have attempted that, they did not accomplish their goal, as Mitchell hurt his ankle in their game against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. While it's hard to tell visually how much a player will be impacted by an ankle sprain, it looked significant enough in the moment to expect Mitchell to need time off.
That is what has happened. Head coach Kenny Atkinson said immediately after that game that he hoped Mitchell could rest the remainder of the season, and thus far that has borne out. Mitchell was ruled out early for their next game, a top-seed-clinching victory over the Chicago Bulls. He wasn't even considered a possibility to play for their road back-to-back against the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. It would be absolutely shocking to see him play on Sunday in Game 82 of the season.
Perhaps there is a healthy dose of caution in those decisions, but Darius Garland was nursing an injury that held him out on Thursday and yet he suited up on Friday. If Mitchell was close, he may very well have played. Instead, he was ruled out early, which is a sign he is dealing with a legitimate sprain to his ankle, even if the Cavaliers have not provided details beyond saying it is "mild".
The break for the Play-In Tournament will provide Mitchell and all of the Cavaliers an extended period of rest. Yet it seems clear that Mitchell will be less than 100 percent even if he plays, as is currently expected, in Game 1 a week from Sunday. From there, his chances of reinjury -- to the ankle, to the groin, or something new -- are very real.
In the modern NBA, playoff series are often decided by availability more than anything else. Last season the Cavaliers' hopes were dashed as Jarrett Allen and Mitchell went down to injury. Darius Garland entered the playoffs at less than 100 percent and it showed. The Boston Celtics got to face shorthanded teams in each of their three Eastern Conference series and cruised to the NBA Finals without a real test.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are not favored to come out of the East, and understandably so. The Celtics have proven something that the Cavaliers have not. And for Cleveland to win, against a strong second round opponent and then in the East Finals against the Celtics, they need their stars to be healthy.
That includes Donovan Mitchell. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Cavaliers' offense. If he is not able to attack the rim and punish opponents, if he is stuck loitering beyond the arc and a half-step slow on defense, opponents will take advantage. Cleveland needs him ready to go -- and his latest injury is a sign that their chances are balanced on the edge of a knife. Another bad landing, another misstep, another freak moment, and their playoff hopes are doomed.
They may be already, and they just don't know it yet.