The entire NBA world grieved with Tyrese Haliburton as he tore his Achilles tendon during Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The injury has changed the trajectory of the East-winning Indiana Pacers for next season -- and has made the Cleveland Cavaliers' offseason path crystal clear.
Each year, injuries define the success and failure of teams. That could apply to short-term injuries that crop up at the worst time, such as when Darius Garland's toe injury hobbled the Cavaliers in the playoffs. It can also apply to season-ending injuries that effectively remove star players from teams that desperately need them.
The Indiana Pacers were set up to be a contender in the Eastern Conference for multiple seasons, a grim prospect for the Cavaliers after Cleveland lost in five games in the second round to those same Pacers. A healthy Pacers team has proven to be a formidable force, and one that the Cavaliers could not take lightly.
Their early loss after a 64-win season called into question whether they needed to take drastic action with their roster. This Cavaliers team had a dominant regular season but another playoff flameout, and their four-star core is not maximizing fit for all that it has overwhelming talent and camaraderie. Should they move on from Jarrett Allen? Darius Garland?
The Cavaliers should stay together
The answer now appears to be obvious: keep the core together.
The Boston Celtics were the favorites to win the Eastern Conference but flamed out at the same time as the Cavaliers, losing Jayson Tatum to an Achilles tear in the process. The Milwaukee Bucks were hardly a contender anyways but lost Damian Lillard to an Achilles tear. The Indiana Pacers lost Haliburton.
The New York Knicks don't have any significant injury concerns, but they no longer match up particularly well against the Cavaliers. The Orlando Magic have some talented pieces but haven't proven they can put everything together yet. The Atlanta Hawks are loading up, having just traded for Kristaps Porzingis, but haven't done anything yet. The Detroit Pistons are ascending. The Miami Heat are proud but critically flawed. The Toronto Raptors want to make a move but were terrible last season.
Add it all up, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are the clear and obvious favorites to win the Eastern Conference. It's not actually clear who else is in the neighborhood. Perhaps the Knicks or Magic or another team has a triumphant season to put themselves in position, but Cleveland should coast to 55 or 60 wins and the No. 1 seed.
This Cavaliers team shouldn't be proud, not after how last season ended. They should assume nothing. But they know this roster is really good, 64 wins good, and they lost in the playoffs because of injury as much as lack of intensity or ill-fitting lineups. There is proof of concept that their team can win at a high level.
They haven't won it all yet, but that isn't a barrier to winning it next year. The Oklahoma City Thunder lost in the second round a season ago and hoisted the trophy this year. The Cavaliers can do the same.
They won't be favored to win the title; Oklahoma City rightly will be. Yet the Cavaliers are absolutely the favorites to win the East and reach the NBA Finals. Unless a move appears before them that obviously, without-a-doubt makes them better, they should hold tight with their current roster. Continuity and growth from Evan Mobley can have a large impact.
If they can pinch their nose and hold their breath and re-sign Ty Jerome and Sam Merrill, they will have the best roster in the conference by far and be in position to make a deep run. The injury to Tyrese Haliburton was a terrible thing, but it gave this Cleveland franchise clarity.
Keep their stars together, and make a run for the trophy. The path has opened up before them.