Some NBA fans will dread this time of the basketball calendar, because of how slow it can feel by comparison to the other exciting points of the season. It is during this time that subjects like Phil Jackson's 40-20 rule start to come into focus as real discussion points.
What is the 40-20 rule? That much is pretty simple to explain. Teams who are legitimate title contenders can typically prove that by getting to 40 wins before they lose 20 games during the season. It's not an exact science, but it does hold true more often than not.
40 of the past 44 NBA champions have met these expectations. That would make the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Detroit Pistons, and the San Antonio Spurs as the only three teams among that bunch this season. NBA history would suggest this year's title winner is very likely to be one of those three.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were eliminated from this category on Jan. 19, when they suffered their 20th loss of the season to the Thunder. That blowout loss was also a big launching point for the Cavaliers, who won 13 of their next 16 games. Without the 40-20 rule being an exact science, Cleveland will look to defy the odds and slim the success rate of its projections in 2026.
Cavaliers don't meet the 40-20 criteria — and that shouldn't matter
If the 40-20 rule was true to the bone, the Pistons would be the only team capable of winning the NBA title out of the Eastern Conference this season. The problem with that is there would be other conventional wisdom that discounts Detroit's chances.
The Pistons are still a fairly young and inexperienced playoff team. That typically does not bode well for winning a title. Look over at the Thunder as a recent example. They needed to fail in the postseason before breaking through as champions.
It's tough to imagine the Pistons winning it all on their first real try as a bona fide contender. That is especially true when considering the lack of consistent firepower and offensive creation behind Cade Cunningham. Detroit has exposable flaws.
That's not to say the Cavaliers do not. They just have more pedigree to get behind the idea of them using past failures as the needed experience to finally have their moment of triumph. There's also the fact that the Cavaliers team that raced to 20 losses looks considerably different than the one in Cleveland now.
Maybe the Cavaliers are not the outright favorite in the East. However, they should certainly get their chance to make it out of the conference. If they reach the NBA Finals, all that would be left is four more wins to defy a trend that has largely dictated who typically claims the Larry O'Brien Trophy.