The Cleveland Cavaliers have not had the season they hoped for before the season began, and they are currently slotted fourth in the Eastern Conference instead of first. At least one incredible stat, however, suggests the Cavs have a secret weapon that makes them the favorites in the Eastern Conference.
This season has certainly been a wobbly one for the Cavaliers. That has been driven in some ways by injury, as players like Darius Garland, Max Strus and Jarrett Allen have missed significant time due to injury.
It has also been driven by ineffectiveness. When Garland did play he was a shell of his former self, until he was traded to the LA Clippers for James Harden. DeAndre Hunter, similarly, was struggling before he was moved to the Sacramento Kings. Evan Mobley was a down-ballot MVP candidate last year and this year won't make an All-NBA team.
When you add their in-season struggles to how they were punked out of the playoffs last season, it paints the picture of a team that just doesn't have "it" and won't be a threat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
That picture might be dead wrong.
The Cavaliers are a sleeping giant
For the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a +4.3 net rating; that means that they are outscoring opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions, which is a more consistent indicator of how good a team is than their win-loss record. That number ranks ninth in the NBA and fifth in the East.
That number matters, but it doesn't tell the whole story. It is factoring in weeks where key players didn't play, or the first half of the season when the Cavaliers employed Garland, Hunter and Lonzo Ball. Their team now looks very different.
That might be true of other teams as well -- the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have certainly dealt with their fair share of injuries as well -- so it's helpful to look a little more closely. And when you look at the lineups that the Cavaliers are likely to have on the court in the postseason, a light starts to shine from heaven.
Databallr.com allows you to look at specific combinations of players to see how they perform when they take the court. The quartet of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have played just 48 minutes together this season. In those minutes, however, they are demolishing opponents to the tune of a +37.7 net rating.
The Core 4 is elite
That demolition of opponents is driven by both sides of the ball, as they are shooting lights out on one end with efficient offense and shutting off the water for opponents on the other. And it bears out positively no matter who is in that fifth spot: there is no negative lineup combination with those four. Max Strus, Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson or Dead Wade -- all positive.
That foursome is in the 100th percentile of all lineups across the NBA. They measure up to the best quartets around the league, whether found in Oklahoma City, Boston, San Antonio or Detroit. This group has the juice.
It's a small sample size; they won't be that dominant as they play more minutes together. But they have a bedrock foundation of excellence that will allow them to swap in the ideal fifth player for the opponent and play at a high level.
Do the Cavaliers have some playoff demons to exorcise? Yes, and there are a lot of people who won't grant them respect until they earn it. That's fair. Everything up until the playoffs is just preamble.
When the chips are down, however, the Cavaliers are going to play their four stars. And when they do, opponents had better watch out. Because that group is really, really good.
And that not-so-secret weapon could unlock a new favorite in the East.