The Cleveland Cavaliers just traded for James Harden. They shipped out Darius Garland and a second-round pick to the LA Clippers in the deal. However, by trading for Harden, they are effectively sealing Donovan Mitchell’s trade fate. The deal signals their desire to shed salary, and since this core will never win a championship, the Cavs will inevitably have to trade Mitchell in a few years.
Harden only has so many years left in the NBA. He’s 36 years old right now. He’s not getting any younger. He’s still playing at an extremely high level, but that could change at any moment, and at best, he could probably play for four more seasons.
But will the Cavs even extend him long enough to get to that point? Probably not.
Cavaliers sealed Donovan Mitchell's trade fate with James Harden deal
Harden is under contract for $39.2 million this season and has a player option for $42.3 million next season. Will he pick it up? Maybe. Will he pick it up because the Cavs don’t want to hand him a new contract? Perhaps.
This swap, trading Garland for Harden, makes the Cavs better in the short-term. Harden is a better player than Garland and, in theory, can take them further this year.
But again, he’s 36 years old. How long will he play? Will the Cavs want to pay a guy that’s his age (especially a couple of years from now)?
The reality of the situation is that Cleveland wants to shed salary. They need to get cheaper. They are a second-apron team, but they aren’t playing like a second-apron team. Trading for Harden allows them to take a short-term gamble and take money off the books in the long run.
The Cavs are going all-in right now at the expense of their future (because they couldn’t afford their roster as it was constructed).
But they’re going all-in with a player who has built up a reputation for falling apart in the playoffs. A guy who has played significantly worse in the postseason. A guy who isn’t great in Game 7s.
It’s not going to work. Not with the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, and Boston Celtics sitting atop the Eastern Conference. The Cavs aren’t going to win with this core.
And when they don’t win, and Harden eventually retires, and they trade other players who are on expensive deals, Mitchell isn’t going to be thrilled.
He’s going to want to be traded, and the Mitchell era in Cleveland will be over.