The Donovan Mitchell trade felt extremely expensive at the time.
Three completely unprotected first-round picks. Two unprotected first-round pick swaps. A lottery pick in Ochai Agbaji, a solid young guard in Collin Sexton, and stretch-big Lauri Markkanen. All for a guard who was only a couple of years away from unrestricted free agency.
The early returns were not great, either. The Cavaliers were good that first season but were destroyed in the playoffs by the New York Knicks, while Lauri Markkanen became an All-Star for the Jazz. Year two was an injury-riddled battle by the Cavaliers, one that ended with a seven-game first round win and then another injury-impacted second round demolition.
Two seasons, a lack of the playoff success this team hoped for when they traded for Donovan Mitchell, and suddenly a decision point had arrived. Would Mitchell sign an extension or would Cleveland need to trade him? Young star Evan Mobley had plateaued, Darius Garland had a terrible season, Jarrett Allen appeared to be trade fodder, and head coach J.B. Bickerstaff was fired.
At that moment in time, the Donovan Mitchell trade had likely reached its nadir in value. Cleveland hadn't even begun paying out the five years of draft picks that the Jazz controlled and they might be on the precipice of a complete team reset.
Then the wind changed, and suddenly everything since has come up Cavaliers.
Donovan Mitchell committed to the team, signing an extension and effusively praising the organization and his teammates. Jarrett Allen agreed to an extension to stay in Cleveland. Then the season began, and head coach Kenny Atkinson proved to be a slam dunk hire, Mobley leveled up into a two-way star, Darius Garland is having a bounceback All-Star campaign, and the team is on track to have the best record in the Eastern Conference.
The cherry on top came Tuesday, when the Utah Jazz made a trade that proved just how much the rest of the league believes in the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Jazz proved the Cavaliers won the Donovan Mitchell trade
The Utah Jazz control a number of future first-round draft picks, accumulated through a variety of trades over the past few seasons. They include five drafts worth of picks from both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves. That gives them a lot of capital to use in improving the team.
The Phoenix Suns, by contrast, have extremely limited flexibility to improve their team, which is both punitively expensive in current salary and completely barren of future draft picks. In fact, as of Tuesday, they only had a single 2031 first-round pick to use in trades to improve their team.
Seeking to increase their flexibility, they made a trade with the Utah Jazz to send their 2031 first completely unprotected in exchange for three picks from the Jazz. A 3-for-1 swap! That speaks to the disastrous future of the Suns once they are done pushing the chips all-in for this current team.
It also speaks to the diminished value of the picks the Jazz were holding that they would see that 3-for-1 swap as an improvement. The reason for that? The Cleveland Cavaliers' first-round picks that they held from the Mitchell deal don't look all that good anymore.
The Jazz sent their "worst" pick in 2025, 2027 and 2029 from between the trio of picks they hold in each year, one each from Minnesota, Cleveland and their own. That includes this next draft, which means they will almost certainly be sending either the 29th or 30th pick sent from the Cavaliers.
In 2027 it's likely to be more of the same; the Minnesota Timberwolves are floundering already and Rudy Gobert will be two years older by then. 2029? It's hard to predict, and the Jazz hope they will be good enough that they are pushing at the top of the league, but it was safe for them to move on from a pick because they expect the first from Cleveland will be a terrible one once again.
In the 2028-29 season Donovan Mitchell will be just 32, Jarrett Allen 30, Darius Garland 29, and Evan Mobley at the height of his powers at 27. It's possible that Garland or Mitchell have hit free agency by then, but if they continue to win at the highest level it's also very likely the re-sign. Mobley and Allen are both under contract even that far out. It's incredibly reasonable to think the Cavaliers will continue to be a great team in 2029, and it seems almost certain they will be in 2027.
The Cavaliers took a major swing three seasons ago when they traded the moon for Donovan Mitchell. In doing so, however, they retained a young core that has developed alongside him. The Jazz certainly made out well in the deal, from Markkanen's ascension into an All-Star to the flexibility to make a trade for a prime asset like the Suns' 2031 pick.
Yet if the Cavaliers have lost Mitchell and were merely a low-end playoff team now, with question marks in the future, their picks would have been much less valuable and the Jazz likely wouldn't have been forced to peddle them at a 3-for-1 value. That's how confident the Jazz and the rest of the league is that this Cleveland team is for real and will win a lot of games for many years.
For a draft-pick only trade involving two Western Conference teams, Tuesday was a vote of confidence in the Cleveland Cavaliers, and they get the last laugh as teams fight and claw to gain the success that Cleveland has already achieved.