The Cleveland Cavaliers have taken a cautious approach to the end of the regular season. They have rested players again and again down the stretch, sometimes all together and sometimes in shifts. Clearly, they hope to reach the playoffs healthy.
Such an approach has worked out fine in the standings, as the team hinted with their words and made obvious with their actions that they preferred the No. 4 seed over No. 3. Where it has not worked is giving this group a sense of continuitiy and chemistry. And unfortunately for the Cavaliers, they are out of time to find it.
Trading James Harden for Darius Garland was a bold trade, and it was made first of all to give them a better chance to compete for the Eastern Conference crown this season. Harden has played about as well as they could have expected since joining the Cavaliers, maintaining his stepback 3-pointers and wizardlike passing.
Cleveland has not been healthy
And even while Harden has largely been healthy and available since arriving, the rest of the team's key players have not. Harden has played in 23 games since the All-Star Break, the same as Evan Mobley. Donovan Mitchell has played in 19, Dean Wade in 16, Jarrett Allen in 13, Max Strus in 11.
Many of those absences were legitimate injury absences, and there is an obvious case to be made that those injuries necessitated rest down the stretch. Allen in particular has spoken to how his injury is ongoing and he is just playing through it.
The Cavaliers lack chemistry
By choosing to prioritize rest, however, the Cavaliers have punted chemistry right out of the window. Per databallr.com, the Cavs' "Core 4" players (Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Allen) have played just 92 minutes together this season. That is four or five games worth of minutes. They are a dominant +25.6 points per 100 when they share the court, but they have barely done so.
It's the same for any potential starting or closing lineup as well. Add in Dean Wade to that group - +38.7, but in only 33 minutes. Max Strus with the Core 4 is a somewhat shocking -1.4 in 34 minutes. Sam Merrill juices that group to +46.8, but in only 24 minutes. Jaylon Tyson got just a single minute with the other starters.
Which group is the best mix? The sample sizes are so small that it's impossible to tell. Not only is that a problem from the Cavaliers' side, because they haven't built chemistry and haven't experimented with lineups across large amounts of minutes; it's a problem because their opponents are overloading with chemistry.
The Eastern Conference is packed with chemistry
Cleveland's most likely opponent in the first round, the Atlanta Hawks, are overloaded with experience together. Their new "core four" has logged 1,076 minutes together this season, more than ten times what the Cavaliers have put together. Their new-look starting lineup has played 377 minutes.
If Cleveland faces the Toronto Raptors instead, their starting lineup has logged 348 minutes this season. The Detroit Pistons, likely awaiting them in the second round, have logged a whopping 526 minutes with their starting lineup. The New York Knicks have 533 minutes this season and about a billion from last year.
The Boston Celtics just got back Jayson Tatum a month ago and (1) already have logged 153 minutes with their starting group, significantly more than Cleveland, and (2) have plenty of chemistry from last season to draw on.
Every other team the Cavaliers are likely to face in the playoffs has chemistry on their side. Cleveland is lacking it altogether. By prioritizing rest down the stretch, they sacrificed something important. And it just might come around to bite them in the butt when the chips are down.