The Cleveland Cavaliers were supposed to be the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have stumbled out of the gate, just 12-7 and in 5th-place in the Eastern Conference. And the most telling stat to explain their performance thus far should frustrate them -- but also provide hope for the future.
Last year, the Cavaliers were a juggernaut. They started the season 15-0. They went on three different winning streaks of at least 10 games. They were not only the best team in the East, but finished well ahead of the pack with a whopping 64 wins.
Coming into this season, they largely kept their team together, retaining Sam Merrill despite the tax cost to do so, and replacing the departed Ty Jerome by trading for Lonzo Ball. They signed Larry Nance Jr. and drafted Tyrese Proctor. They looked to be the same kind of team that steamrolled the regular season last year.
Yet the reason they fell short in the playoffs has become the reason they are off to an inconsistent start: injuries. It may seem like too simple of a solution, but it's also the reality. The Cavaliers lost Darius Garland to a nasty toe injury in the playoffs and fell apart against the Indiana Pacers. And now the key reason they are struggling this year is that they have not been healthy.
The Cavaliers need to be healthy
Darius Garland has played in only five games this season. The Cavaliers are 4-1 in those games, with an overtime loss in Miami on a buzzer-beating dunk the lone loss. And when you look udner the hood, the Cavaliers remain every bit as dominant with their core four stars in the game as ever.
With Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are on the court together, they are unstoppable. Out of all 4-man lineups in the NBA to play at least 30 minutes this season, they rank seventh, outscoring opponents by 57 points per 100 possessions.
When Jaylon Tyson joins that foursome, the Cavaliers have a 112.4 net rating; it's only 10 minutes, but that's an unthinkably potent performance. In 23 minutes with DeAndre Hunter with the core four, the Cavaliers are a strong +55.6. And Max Strus, last year's fifth starter, hasn't played a minute yet this season as he recovers from injury.
The problem, of course, is that the Cavaliers have to get and stay healthy. Garland has already aggravated his toe injury and missed more time to start the year. Allen has missed five games. Merril has missed seven. Not a single player on the roster has appeared in all 19.
Can the Cavaliers stay healthy? If so, they look like they will be the best team in the Eastern Conference -- or at least right there with the likes of the New York Knicks (off to an injury-affected start themselves) and the upstart Detroit Pistons. If they cannot get Garland healthy, however, their ceiling is substantially lower.
Cavaliers fans can both take heart and feel panic: the solution to their success is within reach. It's just also a solution the team has no control over. Get healthy and win; stay injured and lose.
Only time will tell which road this team gets to walk down.