The Cleveland Cavaliers will not have a good draft pick for a very long time.
Starting with the 2025 NBA Draft, the Cavs will begin paying out draft picks to the Utah Jazz from the Donovan Mitchell trade. In 2025, '27 and '29 their picks will go directly to Utah, and in '26 and '28 the Jazz will have the option to swap picks with Cleveland. Given the team's youth and success it seems unlikely that a swap would happen, and if it does it will mean both the Cavs and Jazz were picking late in the round.
That means that last year's draft selection of California wing Jaylon Tyson with the 20th pick in the draft may have been their last real swing at a highly-regarded prospect; he was not a lottery pick, but they won't have a first at all in 2025 and then may be the last team or two picking in 2026 if their team stays healthy.
Drafting Tyson also allows them to develop a player who can step into a larger role as their team gets expensive and they are forced to let someone walk in free agency or move them on in a trade. That's the cycle every contender has to go through, so nailing their draft picks is crucial to maintaining the level of play.
Was Tyson the right pick for the Cavaliers? Let's look briefly at how he has played this season and whether a better choice was on the board when they pulled the trigger.
Jaylon Tyson has shown flashes of excellence this season
Given that the Cleveland Cavaliers are both amazing and deep this season, Tyson has not seen the court very often. He has appeared in 17 games but mostly just in the fourth quarter of blowouts. Eight times he has entered the game for a handful of second quarter minutes, but only once has he appeared in a first or third quarter.
That one game was certainly impressive, however. With half the roster unavailable, including all five players rotation players capable of reasonably playing small forward, Tyson was elevated into the starting lineup. He announced himself to the league in his first career start with an impressive 16 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists and two steals.
That stat line has only been matched by any NBA player this season 24 other times, and that list is populated with MVPs like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, All-Stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jimmy Butler, and rising stars like Alperen Sengun, Jalen Johnson and Evan Mobley.
Tyson is strong and appears like a long-term positive on the defensive end. On offense he has a lot of potential but lacks polish; he isn't ready for a full-time rotation role on a contender, but he isn't that far off and is not a disaster when he takes the court. He looks like a palyer who should develop into a solid rotation wing, and there is certainly upside that he can improve even further. The growth trajectory of a player like Jalen Johnson makes a lot of sense for Tyson.
As solid as he has been, was there a player taken after Tyson who would have been a better pick?
Did the Cavaliers miss out on a better player?
Evaluating players just two months into their rookie seasons is a fool's errand; there are years to go to determine their final trajectory in the NBA. Even so, the early data on players can still be good, especially if it speaks to a higher level of play than previously thought possible.
The 2024 Draft is unusual in that so many of the top players drafted have disappointed thus far, while some of the standout players have been from later picks. Does that mean that the Cavaliers missed the mark when taking Tyson at No. 20?
The answer is probably no, or at least there isn't an obvious player that the Cavs should have absolutely drafted ahead of Tyson. Kyle Filipowski would fit in well as a third big, but it would have been a difficult proposition to draft a center in the first round and still keep Jarrett Allen fully engaged.
A couple of wings and forwards would enter the conversation, including Jaylen Wells of the Memphis Grizzlies, but his upside is capped in a way Tyson's is not. Ryan Dunn is probably the player they should have drafted, a defensive maestro who has developed a 3-point shot; Dunn originally went 28th to the Phoenix Suns.
In another year one or more players will likely pass Tyson by, but he will also have the opportunity to move up the rankings. He plays the league's most premium position, he has already shown an ability to play up to the role asked of him, and his upside is as even more than a solid rotation player. That is an excellent return on the 20th pick, and right now it looks like the Cavaliers made the right pick.