The Cleveland Cavaliers should never have traded for James Harden. Now, with their season on the line, they are facing the consequences for their poor decision.
Meteorologists study atmospheric data to predict when a hurricane is going to form, how strong it will be, and where it is likely to make landfall. Based on their knowledge of past natural disasters, they make an informed prediction about how a current disaster is going to take place.
There is a point where the meteorologist is confident that a disaster is coming, even if they are not yet sure quite how bad it will be, or where it will make landfall. The disaster is certain; exactly when, where and how is yet to be seen.
James Harden was a looming disaster
At the moment that the Cavaliers traded for James Harden, the prognosticators locked in their predictions: Harden would destroy Cleveland's chances of advancing far into the playoffs. They didn't yet know exactly how, or where in the playoffs, but everyone was confident that at some point, James Harden would self-destruct so spectacularly as to lose playoff games and ensure elimination for his team.
Hurricane Harden flirted with making landfall in the first round, a five-game series that went seven because Harden and Donovan Mitchell both turtled into themselves. A second-round bout with a vulnerable Detroit Pistons team offered a chance at playoff redemption and that ever-elusive Conference Finals trip for Mitchell.
Harden made landfall
Instead, Harden has come ashore, bringing high-speed winds and storm surge. Through two games in Detroit, both losses, Harden is a combined 9-for-28 from the field (32 percent), including 1-for-11 from 3-point range. He has 10 assists and a whopping 11 turnovers.
In Game 2, when Harden was the primary defender, the Pistons shot 7-for-7 from the field. Per ESPN's Stats Williams, it's the first time in the player tracking era (since 2013-14) that a defender has allowed perfect shooting on that many attempts.
Harden was a disaster on offense in both games, unable to make a shot and turning the ball over with abandon. He not only couldn't take advantage of stout perimeter defenders such as Ausar Thompson or Cade Cunningham, but he couldn't find a way to beat Duncan Robinson.
Defensively, Harden was supposed to be an upgrade over Darius Garland. That upgrade "on paper" has proved to be meaningless. He is being roasted by anyone who attacks him, a weak link in a Cleveland defense that desperately needs to avoid them.
The Cavaliers have been close enough to win both games, and Harden has ensured they couldn't seal the deal. His meandering possession late in Game 2 ended in an ugly turnover, one that made Cleveland fans cry and everyone else laugh uncontrollably.
Harden is dooming the Cavaliers
The problem is, it could get worse. Hurricane Harden could dial up to a Category 5 and stop getting to the line altogether. His very worst playoff performances are still looming in the projection models.
This was always going to be the outcome when Koby Altman and company made the trade for James Harden. He falls apart in the playoffs; it's what he does. For the Cavaliers to think anything else would happen was misguided and foolish.
Now the disaster has struck. It is no less potent for the fact that everyone saw it coming.
And unfortunately, Cleveland is unlikely to survive.
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