The Cleveland Cavaliers have a problem, and it will prevent them from granting LeBron James his longtime wish. If he wants to win another championship to continue chasing Michael Jordan, he won't be able to do so in Cleveland with this roster.
On the surface, the Cavaliers seem like a no-brainer place for LeBron to sign with to contend for a title. Even setting aside the robust emotional reasons for James to return home to Cleveland for a storybook ending to his career, on paper, they look like a team he could propel toward a title.
On paper, the Cavaliers are a contender
Of the four teams to reach the Conference Finals last season, the Cavaliers are the only one in the LeBron sweepstakes (the Knicks were rebuffed and the Thunder and Spurs don't appear to be interested). They won two series without him last year; how many more could they win with him?
Cleveland also boasts a lot of star power, with four All-Stars on their roster: two guards in James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, and two bigs in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That leaves a nice warm spot at small forward for LeBron to settle into.
The Cavs also play in the Eastern Conference, which is both growing more competitive and lacks the star power and juggernaut teams of the Western Conference. The New York Knicks had an unbelievable run to the championship this past season, but at least some of that was hot shooting and an insane record in clutch games. They don't look like a long-term dynasty.
The Spurs and Thunder, on the other hand, are packed with young talent and are only getting started. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and Victor Wembanyama will likely win many such trophies in the next decade. Nikola Jokic has three MVPs of his own. The West is stacked at the top, even if the East has caught up in the middle.
All of those factors should make Cleveland the obvious answer for LeBron James to sign with, and they indeed are reportedly the front runners. Why, then, wouldn't he join the Cavaliers?
Because they cannot actually give him a chance at a title.
In reality, Cleveland falls short
Not as currently constructed, at the very least. The fit of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron is a terrible one, just as LeBron found himself trying to glue together Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. It is miraculous that James remains as impactful as he is at age 41, particularly with the ball in his hands. But that means he is not at his best merely spotting up in the corner.
Harden is a ball-dominant star and takes so much off the table defensively. There is a reason that LeBron's "whiteboard" musings on potential destinations saw the loss of Darius Garland as a point against the Cavaliers. Harden is a playoff disaster. James wants a team at its best in the postseason; the Cavaliers, taking cues from Harden, are at their worst.
The Cavaliers are committed to re-signing James Harden, and that will give them a very top-heavy roster that doesn't fit together very well. Dean Wade is now playing for the rival 76ers, decreasing their defensive versatility. This is a team that will be better if LeBron signs, but they won't suddenly be the East favorites.
If LeBron is searching for a fifth title, he probably won't find it in Cleveland. That's a truth he has to come to grips with before he signs, or it could be a difficult year in Ohio.
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