The Cleveland Cavaliers will not look the same by the end of 2025.
It's the reality of the NBA, and especially the modern NBA operating under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Teams that are good get expensive, and teams that are expensive are severely penalized if they stay that way for long.
Right now, the Cavaliers are in a blessed situation, with a roster well under the first tax apron but good enough to have a historically good record through 34 games. They even have the flexibility to make a trade that takes back money between now and the Trade Deadline, something few contenders can claim.
Such a trade is one way that the roster could look differently this year. Another path is this summer, when new extensions for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley kick in and the roster gets significantly more expensive. It is at that point the Cavs have to make difficult decisions about their pending free agents, including Caris LeVert and Ty Jerome.
It's likely one or the other will have to go unless the Cavaliers are willing to leap up into the second tax apron, a decision they would not make lightly. If Evan Mobley continues his dominant season and qualifies for an All-NBA team (or wins Defensive Player of the Year, which is probably less likely at this point) his salary will increase and the Cavs will have even less room.
With those factors in play, it's almost certain that the roster will look differently in a year. Which players could find themselves leaving town this year? Let's look at four candidates, including one All-Star player who could find himself back in trade rumors.
No. 4: Caris LeVert
Caris LeVert has always been something of an enigma on this team, a player whose strengths seemed duplicative on a roster with so many other on-ball playmakers, but who nonetheless has found a way to thrive and is beloved by his teammates and coaches. If Caris LeVert leaves, it will not be because he was not wanted.
The problem is that LeVert will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and there are a lot of teams that could use a player with his combination of playmaking, scoring, shooting and perimeter defense. The Cavaliers will almost certainly push into the second tax apron if they sign LeVert to a market deal.
Does that mean they trade him ahead of this February's Trade Deadline to bring back more manageable long-term salary? Do they offload another salary like Georges Niang to open up space to bring back LeVert? Or does a complicated market this summer and the Cavs' salary restrictions lead LeVert to re-sign at a lower number than expected?
Too many of the potential outcomes lead to LeVert wearing another jersey by the end of 2025.
No. 3: Tristan Thompson
It has become clear that whatever performance-enhancing substance Tristan Thompson was suspended last season for using was necessary for Thompson to maintain an NBA level of play, as he has been a disaster on the court this season. We went into detail on that reality recently, but suffice it to say that no rostered player has had a worse impact on the Cavaliers' performance this season.
Two things are capable of consistently defeating the Cavaliers this year: the Atlanta Hawks, and Tristan Thompson. That's not to take away from his presence in the locker room as an experienced veteran with championship experience, just to point out the Cavs need a better option at backup center.
Whether they find that option this season at the Trade Deadline or on the Buyout Market, or whether they find that player this summer in free agency or in the NBA Draft, it seems extremely likely that Thompson will need to move on - whether that is to another team or back to the ESPN analyst chair.
No. 2: Emoni Bates
A number of Cavaliers fans were extremely excited when the team drafted Emoni Bates late in the 2023 NBA Draft. The Michigan native was an elite high school player whose college career was very disappointing, and he was seen by many as a diamond in the rough.
Bates has certainly brought with him a high-volume jump shot and is capable of hitting a lot of 3-pointers. Unfortunately, and as expected, his game has involved little else at both the NBA and G League levels. And while last season he did hit over 40 percent of his 3-pointers with the Cleveland Charge, this season he is at just 27.8 percent in his three appearances.
The Cavaliers will look to use their two-way spots to both develop future talent but also to hold onto players able to step in and contribute to the main roster in case of injuries, and Bates would be a disaster if put on an NBA court right now. Given the lack of real development he has shown, it would not be surprising if whoever the Cavaliers draft in the second round this summer replaces him in that two-way slot.
No. 1: Jarrett Allen
This is not a call for the Cleveland Cavaliers to trade Jarrett Allen, nor necessarily even a prediction that they absolutely will. It's merely a reminder not to ignore the signs that the organization is leaving that a Jarrett Allen trade could happen.
Allen and the Cavaliers agreed to a contract extension this past summer, one that was timed specifically so that Allen would be trade-eligible by this season's Trade Deadline. If the team had a rocky start to the year, he would have been a prime trade candidate.
A deal is much less likely now, of course, because the team is destroying the league and looks nearly unbeatable. Yet at the same time, head coach Kenny Atkinson continues to go to different looks at center in the second half of games, including minutes for Dean Wade or Georges Niang at the 5 for a stretch look.
Could a blockbuster offer for Allen at this year's Trade Deadline bowl them over and lead to a deal where Allen is swapped for a combo forward with shooting range? Probably not, but it's not insane to consider.
Where a move is much more likely is this summer, when the Cleveland front office could evaluate the state of things and decide that moving Evan Mobley to center full-time is in the best interests of the team long-term, and shop Allen for that big forward the team has always wanted.
It's not a guarantee that Allen is moved, but there are enough cookie crumbs around the situation that it is a very real possibility. That makes Allen the only one of the stars with any path to not being on this team by the end of 2025.