How the Cleveland Cavaliers finish this season will decide what happens this summer. And that includes trades involving key players.
For all of the incredible success this team has accomplished this regular season -- the best record in the NBA, three double-digit win streaks, a 15-0 start, a scorching-hot shooting performance, the presumptive Coach of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year -- at the end of the day, regular season success is not the ultimate goal.
This Cavaliers franchise wants to win a championship. They want to prove themselves in the playoffs under the brightest lights, against the strongest foes. And if that pursuit falls short, they will have some difficult soul-searching to do, even with such a dominant regular season.
The Cavaliers are good enough to win it all. If they make it to the NBA Finals and lose, or even lose a hard-fought series in the Eastern Conference Finals to the defending champion Boston Celtics, the approach this summer is likely to be more mild, tinkering with a successful race car. If they are punked by the Celtics or upset a round earlier, more drastic moves could be in mind.
Let's look at three trade scenarios that the Cavaliers could face this summer, and how each one is likely to be handled by the organization. We will start small and build our way up to the more nuclear option.
No. 3: Replacing their breakout player
The Cavaliers are on track to be a second apron team next season, which means their total team salary will not only exceed the salary cap but push past the luxury tax to the second apron, limiting their options to continue improving the team. The Cavs will be restricted in how they can sign new players, re-sign their own free agents and make trades to change the roster.
Ty Jerome has had a phenomenal breakout season for the Cavaliers this season, and he will hit unrestricted free agency this summer ready to land the first significant payday of his career. Cleveland can offer him a decent amount of money on a new deal as they hold his "Early Bird Rights" but that number is capped. They also may not want to offer even that much because of the team-building restrictions it will cause in future seasons.
If Jerome walks, then, the Cavaliers need someone to replace that bench scoring role. They moved on from Caris LeVert, likely the right move to get a player in De'Andre Hunter who better helps them win this season, but if Jerome walks they will be without someone ready to fill that on-ball creation role for bench units.
With Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell able to stagger their minutes that need is not gargantuan, but it is there, especially if one misses time. Attaching a draft asset to a small contract could bring in a capable bench option, or they could even go for a bigger move using the contract of Isaac Okoro or Max Strus.
No. 2: Diversifying their salaries
The Cleveland Cavaliers are soon going to face the problem that many contenders face: maintaining their depth. it's easier to build great depth when your key players are inexpensive, but once everyone is properly paid, most great teams have to make difficult decisions to bid farewell to key role players.
For example, the Denver Nuggets won the title, then lost Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over the next 14 months. When Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. were all making significant money it squeezed out other non-star players.
The Cavaliers could face that reality soon, with Ty Jerome a potential casualty this summer but other players the following year. Cleveland also doesn't have control of its own draft picks for the next half-decade, making it more difficult to add replacement players at low cost in the draft.
One potential option is to take one of their larger single salaries, such as Max Strus on his $16 million contract, and break it up into multiple rotation players. Perhaps they can get a bench wing and a backup center who combined make in that same range. None individually would be as good as Strus, but perhaps the flexibility and depth coming back outweighs the loss of Strus.
That's one example, but it's a way expensive teams can maintain their depth - even if it's painful to do.
No. 1: Trade Jarrett Allen
The great experiment in Cleveland was on life support this summer before Donovan Mitchell signed an extension. Then Jarrett Allen was soon to follow, and the "Big 4" were brought back for another run. The regular season results have been exemplary, above anyone's expectations, and the Cavaliers have the league's best offense despite starting two bigs.
Yet the question remains whether this group can excel in the playoffs. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has made things work with the two bigs, yes, and he deserves a tremendous amount of credit for that. He has also spent a lot of time separating the two, playing one big without the other and moving Dean Wade, Georges Niang or De'Andre Hunter in at power forward.
If Atkinson is pulling Jarrett Allen off the floor in crunch time every game, and the Cavs fall short of their goals this season, it could be time to explore Allen trades once more. He has only improved his trade value this year and would likely be valued by a number of teams around the league.
Could Cleveland flip him for a two-way wing to pair with Hunter in the starting lineup? Do they swing for the fences and try to add an available low-end star? Do they turn his contract into multiple other contracts that increase the team's versatility? Do they lean into a pick-heavy package to have the draft ammunition to reload their depth as they continue to contend?
There are multiple paths available if they want to go down the road of trading Jarrett Allen. That is far from a given, but even when the front office signed Allen to an extension last summer they made sure it fit the rules to be traded by the Trade Deadline. That obviously didn't happen given the team's success, but it means Koby Altman and company are at least open to the idea if it makes the team obviously better, now or in the future.
The Cavaliers will be active in trying to improve their team. That search becomes more urgent if this group proves they don't have enough to go all the way. How they approach the trade market this summer will be decided by how they end their playoff run.