The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't had a great week.
After dispatching the Memphis Grizzlies last Friday night, the Cavaliers have dropped three-straight games to the Orlando Magic, the LA Clippers and the Sacramento Kings. Playing a late night contest against the desperate Phoenix Suns, it's possible that streak extends to four games tonight.
Overall, the Cavaliers still hold a solid lead on the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but the Boston Celtics have won three straight themselves and closed the gap to six games. To stave off the Celtics and more importantly be ready to face all comers in the playoffs, it would be helpful to the Cavs to identify why it is they went from 16-straight wins to three-straight losses.
Let's identify three failures of the team over the last three games and then see if we can provide Cleveland with a solution ahead of the playoffs.
No. 3: Lost their way from 3-point distance
Over the past three games, the Cavaliers have shot a frigid 32.2 percent from 3-point range, 4th-worst in the league over that span. Sharpshooter Sam Merrill is just 2-for-10, while the usually prolific Ty Jerome is just 1-for-11. On a much larger scale, Donovan Mitchell has made only six of his 29 attempts, 20.7 percent.
As recently as a week ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers were first in the NBA in 3-point percentage by a substantial margin. For much of the season they were above 40 percent from deep as a team. Yet this past week has yanked them down to 38.7 percent as a team this season, barely ahead of the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks.
When you factor in that the Cavaliers are also taking much fewer attempts, you begin to put your finger on what's going on with their offense. They defined themselves all season long as a team that takes and makes a lot of 3-pointers - but good shots; they don't push the envelope past the line of "chucking" as the Celtics arguably do.
The Solution: Increase the volume of 3-pointers and trust shooters to hit shots. They won't stay cold for long.
No. 2: Hot Opponent Shooting
If the Cavaliers have struggled to hit shots over the past few games, their opponents certainly have not. In each of their past three losses, the Cavs have been significantly outshot from 3-point range.
The Cavaliers were actually decent at shooting the ball on Wednesday night, which was a four-point loss to the Sacramento Kings, but the Kings were on fire. They shot 16-for-35 from distance, good for 45.7 percent. Keon Ellis was 3-for-4, Malik Monk was 4-for-7, and even DeMar DeRozan shot 2-for-5. Their starters were 12-for-24 overall (50 percent).
The difference was even more stark against the LA Clippers. The Cavaliers managed to shoot a pedestrian 34.1 percent from deep, while the Clippers shot the same as the Kings: 45.7 percent on 16-for-35 from distance. Kawhi Leonard emerged from the bacta tank to shoot 5-for-6, and Bogdan Bogdanovic came off the bench to shoot 4-for-4 from deep (8-for-8 overall).
Finally, the Cavs started their losing streak against the Orlando Magic. Cleveland somehow shot just 25 percent on 10-for-40 shooting. The Orlando Magic, the league's worst shooting team, shot 41.9 percent, with their starters hitting an impressive 10 triples and Anthony Black going 3-for-3 off the bench.
The Solution: Don't panic. None of their opponents got up an insane number of attempts, and that's largely the part of 3-point defense a team can control. Their opponents won't continue having season-best shooting nights. If the Cavs stick to their defensive principles and don't make a knee-jerk change, they should weather this storm and be just fine.
No. 1. Donovan Mitchell is struggling
Donovan Mitchell has received plenty of praise this season for how he has ceded some of the offensive responsibilities to his teammates, allowing Evan Mobley and particularly Darius Garland to thrive while he focused on increasing his efficiency and helping the entire offense hum.
That has not been the case over the past three games. As mentioned above, Mitchell is shooting a horrible 20.7 percent from deep on a large volume. Looking under the hood, some of the reasons for this come to light.
Per NBA.com, in his last three games Mitchell has taken 6.3 pull-up 3-pointers per game, and shot only 10.5 percent on those shots (2-for-19 overall). When he shoots off the catch, which he has done 3.3 times per game, he has hit 40 percent.
To look at that another way, Mitchell hasn't hit a single 3-pointer this past week when he takes 1-6 dribbles; he also is taking a whopping three triples per game after 7 or more dribbles, hitting just 22.2 percent of those. While his pull-up shot is a valuable piece of his inventory, he doesn't need to go to it as often when playing with his All-Star teammates; but over the last three games, he has really leaned into it.
Part of the problem is that Mitchell is dribbling the ball for long periods of time, eventually needing to chuck up a shot at the end of the shot clock. Mitchell is 0-for-5 on 3-pointers in the last 7 seconds of the shot clock. And even when Mitchell is open the shots are not falling; he is 1-for-8 on contested 3-pointers, yes, but only 5-for-21 on open 3-pointers, and somehow 0-for-4 on wide-open triples.
Solution: Some of the problem is just Mitchell shooting poorly on shots he would normally make; he is shooting 49.3 percent on wide-open 3-pointers this season even after the poor week. Where the real problem has been is his shot diet; Mitchell needs to shift his balance back toward more catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and fewer pull-up shots. That means allowing Mobley and Garland and Jerome and even Max Strus to have the ball more often, with Mitchell working off-ball.
Whether his groin injury or fatigue has decreased his off-ball movement, Spida needs to get it back. Once he does, his efficiency should increase and with it, the Cavs' offense will soar once more.