Projected Cavaliers starting lineup vs Knicks in Game 3 tonight

The Cleveland Cavaliers knew they were going to need to make rotation changes in the playoffs. So much of the team was untested in the playoffs, and the rest had never gone to war together. After a wobbly Game 1, the Cavaliers came out and blasted the New York Knicks in Game 2 to tie the series.

Game 3 is tonight at Madison Square Garden. Multiple players on the Cavs had big performances in Game 2 to earn a larger role moving forward, while others saw their grip on a rotation spot loosen considerably. Will head coach J.B. Bickerstaff make a change to the starting lineup? And on the other sideline, will Tom Thibodeau change up the Knicks’ starters?

Projected Cavaliers starting lineup vs Knicks:

• Darius Garland (69 starts)
• Donovan Mitchell (68 starts)
• Caris LeVert (30 starts)
• Evan Mobley (79 starts)
• Jarrett Allen (68 starts)

The core four starters are locked into place, as they have been all season. Barring injury, the Cavaliers will start Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen every game moving forward, not just in this series but for years to come.

The opening comes at small forward. Isaac Okoro has had that spot claimed for a few months now after losing it briefly to start the season. His lack of shooting has proved too onerous thus far in the playoffs, as teams gameplan to attack weaknesses more aggressively. Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks have basically ignored Okoro in the corners and he hasn’t made them pay.

Bickerstaff played Okoro just three minutes in Game 2, and it’s likely he has lost his starting spot, at least for now. Who will replace him? Caris LeVert saw an expansion of his role in Game 2 and is the candidate we tap here to step into the starting lineup.

There is something to be said for keeping LeVert in a Sixth Man role and starting Cedi Osman or Danny Green (or maybe even Dean Wade). This would preserve the rotation pattern LeVert is used to and stagger his minutes with the two perimeter stars. The counterpoint is that Bickerstaff started LeVert to start the second half and played him 40 minutes, an indication he is very comfortable placing him in the same lineup as both Garland and Mitchell.

That five-man lineup played 456 possessions together in the regular season, second-most on the team behind the starting lineup with Okoro. That group was +16.2 (per 100 possessions) in non-garbage-time play, per Cleaning the Glass, with a good offense and a killer defense. That group has played 28 possessions in two playoff games and had a point differential of +69.8.

Projected Knicks starting lineup vs Cavaliers:

• Jalen Brunson (68 starts)
• Quentin Grimes (66 starts)
• RJ Barrett (73 starts)
• Julius Randle (77 starts)
• Mitchell Robinson (58 starts)

This has been the starting group for most of the year, once Tom Thibodeau settled on Quentin Grimes as the last wing starter. When healthy, this is the group that Thibs wants to deploy, and it has started both of the Knicks’ playoff games thus far.

The one potential change is at small forward. RJ Barrett is the big name with the big contract extension, and he has started all season, but Thibodeau is increasingly closing with Josh Hart, often in place of Barrett. If Barrett doesn’t show more offensive verve soon he could see himself replaced as a starter.

The Cavaliers have struggled to find their fifth starter all season, and Caris LeVert looks to have earned the final spot. Whether or not that stays the case will depend on whether he can stay hot and continue making a two-way impact for the Cavs.